Stock Analysis · Bulls vs Bears

Reddit, Inc. RDDT

🐂 Bulls vs Bears 🐻Report #212 Oct 2026
★ Willem owns this stock · 2.2% of the portfolio
30
moderate risk▼ −16 vs last
🐂 9vs11 🐻
Bears lead
27%
▲ Chance of the biggest tailwind the forecasts miss
27%
▼ Chance of the biggest headwind the forecasts miss
The verdict

The money side keeps beating its own targets: revenue topped the high end of guidance 8 quarters out of 8, by 6–16% each time, and US revenue per user rose 51% while US users went backwards. The open question is the funnel. About 60% of daily users are logged-out visitors who mostly come from search. That traffic is now falling on third-party measures, the metric that would show it is no longer reported, and the…

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Written by Claude (Anthropic’s AI) from public sources · Willem owns RDDT · AI can make mistakes — numbers in brackets point to the sources · Not financial advice

🐂 Bull arguments 9

  1. 1Revenue has beaten the top of guidance eight quarters runningStrong
  2. 2Pricing power: US revenue per user up 51% with users flatStrong
  3. 3$2.79B net cash and ~$1.0B of yearly free cash flowStrong
  4. 4Share count held flat while $235M was bought back near today's priceMedium
  5. 5Closing the API turns scraping into paid access or lawsuits Reddit is winningMedium
  6. 6AI makes real human discussion scarcer and more valuableMedium
  7. 7International revenue grew 84% at a fifth of US pricingMedium
  8. 8Search, Answers and shopping ads are not in revenue yetMedium
  9. 9The multiple has more than halved in a yearWeak

🐻 Bear arguments 11

  1. 1Six in ten daily users are logged-out, mostly search visitorsHigh
  2. 2US daily users fell after management named them "top priority"High
  3. 3AI answers and Google's AI Mode can replace the visitHigh
  4. 4Contracted licensing revenue drops to $30M for all of 2027Medium
  5. 5The logged-in split was dropped just as it stalled at +1%Medium
  6. 6Product, technology and legal chiefs all changed within six monthsMedium
  7. 7Consensus already sits above guidance; a normal beat is pricedMedium
  8. 895% ad revenue on budgets that can be cut overnightMedium
  9. 9Stock pay jumps back to $140–155M in Q3Low
  10. 10New EU, UK and Australian rules target anonymous and young usersLow
  11. 11Insiders only sell, including a director outside any planLow

Bull arguments show how well they survive the devil’s advocate (strong / medium / weak); bear arguments show the damage they could do after the counter-argument (high / medium / low).

Bull case

🐂 Bull #1Revenue has beaten the top of guidance eight quarters running

  • The point: Management guides one quarter ahead and has beaten the top of its own range, on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA, every quarter since Q3-24. The smallest revenue beat was 6.1%. Report #1 said "five quarters". The filings show eight.
  • Evidence:
    • Revenue beat vs top of range: Q3-24 +12.4%, Q4-24 +6.9%, Q1-25 +6.1%, Q2-25 +16.2%, Q3-25 +7.3%, Q4-25 +9.1%, Q1-26 +9.7%, Q2-26 +11.0% [1,4,5,6,44,45,46,47,48].
    • Adjusted EBITDA beat the top of its range by 14.7–56.8% in the same eight quarters [same sources].
    • Q2-26: revenue $804.9M against a $715–725M guide. Adjusted EBITDA $342.8M against $285–295M [1].
    • CFO Vollero on how the guide is set: "We still have 40% to 50% of our orders to write in quarter" [8].
    • No restatement, auditor change or Item 4.01/4.02 8-K was found in 2024–26. Item 9A was not read, so this is "none seen", not a confirmation [3,11].
  • Why it matters: It makes management's money guidance credible. For Q3 ($860–870M) the base case is a beat, and the smallest beat so far would mean about $923M.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate: Everyone knows the pattern. Zacks consensus for Q3 is already $886M, 2% above the top of guidance [21]. A beat at the bottom of the historical range (6%) would still clear consensus, but the stock fell 22% intraday after an 11% beat in Q2 [18]. The beats are on revenue. Management's user goals are a different story (Bear #2).
  • Verdict: Strong the record is measured from filings and the beats are large. But it only protects revenue expectations, not the user story the stock now trades on.

🐂 Bull #2Pricing power: US revenue per user up 51% with users flat

  • The point: Reddit grows revenue by charging more per user, not by adding users. That is a sign its ad engine is getting better at performance advertising.
  • Evidence:
    • Q2-26 US ARPU $11.85 (+51%) while US DAUq grew only 6% y/y and fell 0.3M quarter on quarter [1].
    • The 10-Q says ad pricing rose about 40% and impressions about 17% [3].
    • Reddit Max revenue grew over 150% quarter on quarter and Max advertisers over 60%. Max opened to all advertisers in September, and company tests show 17% lower cost per acquisition [1,21].
    • Dynamic product ads and app-install ads each more than doubled y/y. The Shopify integration has 500+ accounts [1].
    • Ad revenue grew 64% to $761.6M, faster than total revenue [1].
  • Why it matters: Ad pricing is the lever Reddit controls. Each extra dollar per user drops mostly to profit, because gross margin is 91% [1].
  • 😈 Devil's advocate: Prices up 40% with impressions up only 17% means growth leans on price. Pricing gains slow once an auction fills with bidders, and Reddit cannot raise ad load much on a community that dislikes ads. Growth is already decelerating: +69% (Q1), +61% (Q2), +47–49% guided (Q3) [1,4].
  • Verdict: Strong the ARPU gap to Meta is still wide, so pricing can rise for years. But it can't make up for a shrinking audience indefinitely.

🐂 Bull #3$2.79B net cash and ~$1.0B of yearly free cash flow

  • The point: Reddit funds itself and carries no debt, so a bad search year is an earnings problem, not a balance-sheet one.
  • Evidence:
    • Cash and marketable securities $2,786.4M at 2026-06-30, no debt. A $500M revolver ($494.4M available) runs to 2030 [1,3,11].
    • Free cash flow: Q3-25 $183.1M, Q4-25 $263.6M, Q1-26 $311.2M, Q2-26 $260.7M. That is about $1,018.6M over twelve months, or a ~36.7% margin on $2,778.8M revenue [1,4,5,6].
    • Capex was $1.1M in Q2-26 [1].
    • Q2 net income was $252.8M, with a tax charge of only $4.0M [1].
  • Why it matters: It funds AI inference, user acquisition, international expansion and buybacks with no dilution or refinancing risk.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate: Q1-26 FCF (47% margin) was flattered by receivables falling from $590.2M to $522.9M [4]. Stock pay of ~$338M over twelve months is excluded from FCF, so FCF after stock pay is closer to 24% (estimate). The ~1.6% tax rate won't last once tax losses are used up (Interpretation).
  • Verdict: Strong the least contested part of the story, even after adjusting for stock pay.

🐂 Bull #4Share count held flat while $235M was bought back near today's price

  • The point: Unlike most 2024 IPOs, Reddit is not diluting holders, and it has started buying back shares in size.
  • Evidence:
    • Fully diluted shares: 206.6M (June 2025) → 207.0M (June 2026), +0.2% [1].
    • $1.0B buyback authorised 2026-02-04. Q2 purchases were 1.5M shares for $234.6M at an average $157.57, and $760.4M remained at 06-30 [1,3].
    • Outstanding options fell from 10.85M to 9.99M in six months. Unvested RSUs total 4.74M, so the overhang is about 7.7% of basic shares (estimate) [3,11].
    • CFO: full-year dilution "at the lower end of our 1% to 3% targeted range" [9].
  • Why it matters: At $159.93 (2026-10-09 close) the stock trades close to the Q2 buyback price [18,19]. The remaining $760M equals about 2.5% of the market cap.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate: The weighted basic share count rose 3.7% y/y (192.35M vs 185.44M) [1]. The flat headline is a fully diluted metric that nets option exercises against buybacks. Insiders sold into the buyback (Bear #11). The Q3 stock-pay guide jumps (Bear #9).
  • Verdict: Medium real discipline, but the "+0.2%" headline flatters the basic count, and buybacks partly absorb stock pay.

🐂 Bull #5Closing the API turns scraping into paid access or lawsuits Reddit is winning

  • The point: Reddit is shutting free routes to its data, so AI firms have to sign a licence or face litigation that has gone Reddit's way so far.
  • Evidence:
    • Announced 2026-09-30: no new public API requests from Oct 31, RSS ends Nov 13, unregistered apps lose access Jan 12, 2027, and the public Data API closes in March 2027. Over 14,000 apps have registered [28].
    • Reddit v. SerpApi/Perplexity (S.D.N.Y., 2026-07-31): the DMCA anti-circumvention claims survive against both. The court found Reddit had standing, partly because of lost licensing revenue [29].
    • Reddit v. Anthropic was sent back to San Francisco state court in March 2026. At the demurrer hearing around 08-12 the judge reportedly doubted Anthropic's arguments. No written ruling was found [30].
    • Huffman: "more and more people interested in Reddit's data" and "these deals aren't binary" [9].
  • Why it matters: Each case Reddit wins raises the price of not paying, which supports both renewals and new buyers.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate: None of this has produced a new contract. Other revenue grew only 24% to $43.3M in Q2 and includes Premium as well as licensing [1]. Google's own DMCA suit against SerpApi was dismissed on standing grounds (07-20), which shows these claims are not automatic [29]. Large AI labs already hold years of Reddit data.
  • Verdict: Medium leverage is clearly up since 2024, but there is no revenue evidence yet.

🐂 Bull #6AI makes real human discussion scarcer and more valuable

  • The point: As AI-written text floods the web, a large, live archive of human opinion becomes rarer. AI answer engines and Google lean on it.
  • Evidence:
    • Huffman (Q1-26): Reddit "continues to be the most cited source in AI citations across all platforms" [7].
    • Profound/Tinuiti (retail write-up) reported Reddit's citation share up at least 73% from October 2025 to January 2026 [42].
    • The Q2 letter: "People don't want a summary of Reddit; they want Reddit" [1].
  • Why it matters: It supports the licensing price and Reddit's place inside AI answers, which helps traffic if links are shown.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate: Citation share swings with one model update. In 2025 ChatGPT cut Reddit citations sharply and RDDT fell 9.5% that day (2025-10-01) [42,43]. Axios (via Semrush) reported Reddit's citation share down 11% in AI Overviews and 31% in AI Mode over one recent period [42]. Being cited is not being visited (Bear #3).
  • Verdict: Medium the scarcity is real, but the company's own "most cited" claim is self-reported and third-party data are volatile.

🐂 Bull #7International revenue grew 84% at a fifth of US pricing

  • The point: International users outnumber US users and pay a fifth as much per head, so even partial catch-up is a long runway.
  • Evidence:
    • Q2-26 international revenue $166.8M (+84%), 20.7% of revenue [1].
    • International ARPU $2.26 (+31%) vs US $11.85. International DAUq 77.1M (+28%) vs US 53.2M [1].
  • Why it matters: International revenue is growing faster than US revenue and from a low base.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate: It is the most search-dependent part of the business. Huffman said in Q1 that machine translation was "carrying most of the weight" [7], and in Q2 that "we saw a decline in our machine-translated content" [9]. The 10-K already warned that translated pages' search ranking "may be negatively impacted" [11].
  • Verdict: Medium strong revenue, but built on the very Google channel that wobbled in Q2.

🐂 Bull #8Search, Answers and shopping ads are not in revenue yet

  • The point: Reddit's own search and Answers surfaces carry buying intent but no ads yet. That optionality is not in revenue.
  • Evidence:
    • Weekly searchers were 80M+ (Q4-25), up from 60M. Answers weekly users rose 1M → 7M → 15M over three quarters [8].
    • Q2-26: the search bar is "universal within the app" and "we grew both searchers and searches" [9].
    • COO Wong: "We do see an advertising opportunity there, and the good news is we have the infrastructure" [9].
    • Shopping listing ads are in testing [9].
  • Why it matters: Search ads are the most valuable ad format. Reddit's search intent ("best X reddit") is commercial.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate: No launch date, no revenue, no query volume beyond weekly searchers. ChatGPT and Google AI Mode fight for the same "what do real people think" query.
  • Verdict: Medium credible upside, but there is no timeline yet.

🐂 Bull #9The multiple has more than halved in a year

  • The point: Much of the traffic worry is already in the price.
  • Evidence:
    • TIKR NTM EV/EBITDA was ~19.6x around 2026-07-26, down from 46–50x a year earlier [22,23].
    • The stock is −30.5% YTD at $159.93 and fell 54.99% peak-to-trough by 2026-03-27 [18,22].
    • Forward P/E 26.5x (StockAnalysis), close to Alphabet's 26.2x and above Meta's 22.3x. Revenue growth is 61% vs their ~20–30% [19].
  • Why it matters: It lowers the bar the business has to clear.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate: Trailing EV/sales (10.1x) is still above Meta (8.1x) and Alphabet (9.4x) [19]. Forward EPS is "adjusted": MarketBeat's GAAP-type EPS path is $5.27 → $6.94, not $7.68 → $9.69 [18,19]. Short interest is 15.7% of float [19].
  • Verdict: Weak a valuation point, not a business point. It lowers the downside at the margin but proves nothing about the funnel.

Dropped since report #1: "Founder control with independent oversight" (old Bull #7). Re-tested: Huffman holds 76.1% of votes, 70.0 points of it through Advance and Tencent proxies [13]. Control did not help users or disclosure this year, so it no longer qualifies as a bull point. It is covered in Bear #5.

Bear case

🐻 Bear #1Six in ten daily users are logged-out, mostly search visitors

  • The point: Reddit's daily users depend on traffic that Google controls, and Reddit says it can't see it well.
  • Evidence:
    • Logged-out DAUq was 77.7M of 130.3M in Q2-26, or 59.6% [1]. The 10-Q: "Visitors that come to Reddit from search engines are generally not logged in" [3].
    • Huffman confirmed roughly "50/50" direct vs Google in Q3-25 (report #1). No newer company figure exists. Similarweb shows organic search at 56.2% of desktop visits (page dated September 2026, desktop only) [27]. It put Google at 58.4% of desktop traffic in June 2024 [49].
    • Sistrix (page updated 2026-09-04): Reddit's Google visibility trend is "strong negative", with the peak in October 2025. 54% of Reddit's US ranking keywords show an AI Overview, which cuts the top result's click rate by about 60% [26].
    • Similarweb: reddit.com visits −8.5% in September vs August. About 3 points of that is the shorter month [27].
    • Huffman, Q2: "our visibility on search continues to remain low, and we expect it to probably continue to be volatile" [9].
  • Why it matters: Ads served to logged-out users still earn revenue. If referrals fall, impressions fall, and price increases have to work harder.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument: Huffman: "we're not building Reddit for that drive-by traffic" [9]. Revenue grew 61% in the quarter referrals were choppy. Sistrix sees "no indications" of a Google core-update penalty [26]. Needham's Laura Martin reiterated Buy ($300) on 10-09, reportedly citing traffic-tracker data pointing to "bullish" Q3 user and revenue growth. That is single-source and gives no figures [24].
  • Severity: High the counter-argument explains why revenue held up, not why traffic would grow. Third-party Q3 data lean negative, with one analyst contradicting that.

🐻 Bear #2US daily users fell after management named them "top priority"

  • The point: Management set US daily users as the top goal in April. The next quarter they fell.
  • Evidence:
    • Huffman, Q1-26: "DAUq is the top priority… how do we go from 50 million dailies to 100 million dailies?… I don't know the timeline" [7].
    • US DAUq: 52.5M (Q4-25) → 53.5M (Q1-26) → 53.2M (Q2-26). Y/Y growth slowed from +9% to +7% to +6% [1,4,5].
    • Huffman, Q2: "We added through that product work DAU in the quarter, but it was offset by a decline in search referrals" [9].
    • In Q1 Huffman said Google changes "almost never stand out on our traffic long term" [7]. In Q2 they did.
    • CFO: "we just need better user retention", and user-acquisition spending "needs stronger attention to improve returns" [9,10].
  • Why it matters: The stock trades on users now: it fell 22% intraday after a big Q2 revenue beat [18]. A second sequential decline in Q3 would show a trend, not a blip.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument: New app-user retention rose 50% (from a small base) [1]. The decline was 0.3M, or 0.6%. Q3 includes the summer, and Q3-25 US DAUq grew sequentially (Interpretation from the pattern in [6]).
  • Severity: High it goes straight at the bull thesis on users, and Q3 is the first report without the logged-in split.

🐻 Bear #3AI answers and Google's AI Mode can replace the visit

  • The point: If AI tools answer with "Redditors say X", the user never visits Reddit.
  • Evidence:
    • Pew (via TIKR): users click a regular result 8% of the time when an AI summary appears vs 15% without [22].
    • Sistrix: an AI Overview cuts position-1 clicks by ~60% and the top-10 average by ~42% [26].
    • Huffman: AI Overviews have "yet to make a similar level of positive impact" as blue links [9].
    • Meta soft-launched "Forum", a Facebook Groups app with an AI "Ask" tab, on iOS on 2026-05-22. RDDT fell more than 5% that day [35]. No usage data have been published.
    • Discord filed confidentially for an IPO in January 2026. No public S-1 yet (secondary coverage only).
  • Why it matters: This threatens the user funnel structurally, beyond one quarter's traffic.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument: People seeking opinions often want the full thread. Licensing gets Reddit paid for being in the answers. RBC said in May that Google putting links inside AI answers could "obviate the bear case" [20].
  • Severity: High no data show AI tools sending meaningful traffic back, and the licensing income at stake (~$130M/yr reported) is small against ~$3B of ad revenue.

🐻 Bear #4Contracted licensing revenue drops to $30M for all of 2027

  • The point: Reddit's licensing contracts are rolling off and nothing is signed beyond 2027.
  • Evidence:
    • Remaining performance obligations (mostly licensing): $120.6M at 03-31 ($91.6M for the rest of 2026, $29.0M for 2027) → $92.1M at 06-30 ($62.0M for the rest of 2026, $30.1M for 2027) [3,12].
    • That is ~$31M per quarter in H2-26 against ~$30M for the whole of 2027 (arithmetic).
    • "Substantially all" licensing value comes from two partners, and contracts "may not be renewed" [11].
    • The WSJ (2026-07-22, via Winbuzzer) reported Reddit is weighing restricting Google's AI access or moving to usage-based fees on the ~$60M/yr deal. The stock fell ~8% [25,22].
    • RBC (05-12): renewal due early 2027, skeptical of $300–500M hopes, though odds of a good outcome "may be improving" [20].
  • Why it matters: Licensing is ~5% of revenue but near-100% margin. The negotiation is with the company that sends half the traffic.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument: Short RPO is normal for 2–3-year deals near renewal. Huffman says "no change in strategy" [9]. Litigation wins add leverage (Bull #5). The revenue at stake (~$130M/yr reported) is about 3% of FY2027 consensus revenue.
  • Severity: Medium small in revenue, but a cliff date is now visible in the filings.

🐻 Bear #5The logged-in split was dropped just as it stalled at +1%

  • The point: Reddit stopped reporting its most informative user metric as it turned weak.
  • Evidence:
    • US logged-in DAUq was 22.9M → 23.0M → 23.2M → 23.1M over four quarters, +1% y/y [1,4,5].
    • The Q4-25 letter flagged the phase-out "later this year". The Q1 call said Q2 would be the last period [5,7].
    • Huffman controls 76.1% of votes [13], so outside holders can't push for the metric's return.
  • Why it matters: Logged-in users write the content and are the stickiest audience. From Q3 the earliest warning sign is gone.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument: The change was announced in February, before the Q2 weakness [5]. Management argues onboarding changes "blur the line" between the two user types. Total US and international DAUq and WAUq will still be reported.
  • Severity: Medium this is about transparency, not the business itself. But it makes Bears #1–3 harder to monitor.

🐻 Bear #6Product, technology and legal chiefs all changed within six months

  • The point: The executives who build the user product are turning over just as users became the issue.
  • Evidence:
    • CPO Maria Angelidou-Smith, named in the Q4-25 letter [5], becomes CEO of Mojang/Minecraft on 2026-10-19 after "not quite a year" at Reddit. Xbox's memo is dated 10-08 [36,37,50]. No Reddit statement, successor or 8-K was found.
    • CTO and founding engineer Chris Slowe stepped down to a senior technical fellow role (reported 2026-04-23) [38]. Amit Puntambekar is listed as CTO, but no company filing confirms it.
    • Chief Legal Officer Benjamin Lee left on 09-14. Paul Cappuccio is "expected" to succeed him [14].
  • Why it matters: The plan for 100M US daily users depends on product execution. Angelidou-Smith ran Facebook Groups before Reddit, the exact community-product skill set Reddit needs. Her move to a games CEO role took her out of the community-product job a year in.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument: Huffman and COO Wong, who run the product and ads strategy, remain. The CLO change is routine. A CPO leaving for a CEO job is a promotion, not a sign of internal trouble.
  • Severity: Medium no proof it harms execution, but the timing is bad and Reddit hasn't disclosed a successor.

🐻 Bear #7Consensus already sits above guidance; a normal beat is priced

  • The point: The market expects the usual beat, so revenue alone won't move the stock up.
  • Evidence:
    • Q3 consensus $886.35M revenue and $1.30 EPS vs a $860–870M guide [21].
    • FY2026 consensus $3.4B revenue / $7.68 adjusted EPS (31 analysts). FY2027 $4.47B / $9.69 [19].
    • FY2026 $3.4B minus H1 $1,468.3M minus Q3 $886M implies Q4 ≈ $1,046M, +44% y/y (arithmetic).
    • The post-Q2 drop (−22% intraday) came on an 11% beat [18].
  • Why it matters: With revenue expectations high, users and licensing headlines drive the stock.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument: The average beat has been ~9.5%, which would mean ~$952M for Q3. EPS revisions rose 2.25% in the 30 days to 10-05 [21].
  • Severity: Medium a sentiment risk more than a business risk.

🐻 Bear #895% ad revenue on budgets that can be cut overnight

  • The point: Almost all revenue is auction advertising from newer, test-and-learn budgets.
  • Evidence:
    • Advertising was 94.6% of Q2 revenue [1]. The top 10 advertisers were ~21% of FY2025 revenue (25% in FY2024) [11].
    • In the 2022 downturn Pinterest grew only 3.6% in Q4-22, Snap's growth fell to ~6%, and Meta's revenue shrank [41] (Snap and Meta figures from secondary coverage).
    • WPP Media sees 2026 global ad growth of 8.9%. The 2027 off-cycle consensus is reportedly ~5.7% [40].
  • Why it matters: Newer ad platforms tend to be cut first, and ad pricing (+40%) is the growth engine.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument: Advertiser concentration is falling, and performance ads tied to sales are cut last. US political spend (~$11.6B in 2026 per AdImpact [45]) adds demand this year.
  • Severity: Medium no sign of it now, but it is the main macro sensitivity.

🐻 Bear #9Stock pay jumps back to $140–155M in Q3

  • The point: The H1 drop in stock pay is not the run-rate.
  • Evidence:
    • Stock pay including related taxes: $78.8M (Q1-26) and $106.8M (Q2-26). The Q3 guide is $140–155M, +31% to +45% on Q2 [1,4].
    • The 2026 target moved from "high teens" of revenue (February) to "low-to-mid teens" (July) [8,9].
  • Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS exclude it, so GAAP profit and FCF after stock pay grow slower than the headline numbers.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument: At ~17% of Q3 guided revenue it stays in management's range. Twelve-month stock pay is 12.2% of revenue, down from 18% in FY2025 [8].
  • Severity: Low known and guided, but it removes part of the dilution argument in Bull #4.

🐻 Bear #10New EU, UK and Australian rules target anonymous and young users

  • The point: Rules on minors and large platforms add friction for the anonymous visitors Reddit depends on.
  • Evidence:
    • EU: designated a Very Large Online Platform on 2026-08-31. Compliance with risk-assessment duties is due about four months later, i.e. end-2026 [32]. Maximum fine 6% of turnover (DSA text).
    • UK: ICO fine of £14.47M (2026-02-23), appeal filed 2026-04-01 [33].
    • Australia: in the under-16 ban, with a High Court challenge filed December 2025 and no hearing date found.
    • US: KOSA passed Senate Commerce on 2026-08-05 [34]. No floor vote found.
    • Securities class action (Tamraz, N.D. Cal.): the motion to dismiss has been pending since 2026-02-13 [31].
  • Why it matters: Age checks on logged-out visitors would hit exactly the traffic in Bear #1.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument: The audience skews adult. Fines so far (~$19M) are under 1% of cash. Peers face the same rules. KOSA keeps stalling.
  • Severity: Low Medium — it raises costs, and only becomes a traffic problem if age checks reach all logged-out users.

🐻 Bear #11Insiders only sell, including a director outside any plan

  • The point: Insiders kept selling through the drawdown and nobody bought.
  • Evidence:
    • No open-market purchases from April to October 2026. MarketBeat shows $0 bought and $37.98M sold in three months [18].
    • Huffman sold about 17–18K shares every two weeks (exercise at $25.29 and same-day sale, 10b5-1). About 106.6K shares since 05-29, roughly $16M (estimate). A new plan was adopted 2026-05-20 [15].
    • COO Wong sold 174,166 shares from June to September from option exercises under 10b5-1 plans, about $30M (estimate) [16].
    • Director Sauerberg sold 5,128 shares at $159.92 on 08-25 with the 10b5-1 box unticked, i.e. a discretionary sale [17].
  • Why it matters: It is a weak signal, but nobody in the company buys at prices 40% below the 52-week high.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument: Almost all of it is pre-planned option monetisation. Huffman's net holdings stay flat, and he still holds ~1.01M options [15]. The discretionary sale was only about $820K.
  • Severity: Low a sentiment signal, not a business risk.

Tailwinds NOT in the forecasts

  • Google and/or OpenAI renewals lift licensing by ≥$150M a year — 27% chance by end-2027
    • Impact on revenue: +$150M, +3.4% vs FY2027 consensus $4.47B
    • Impact on EPS: +$0.56 per share, +5.8% vs FY2027 consensus $9.69 (adjusted EPS)
    • How we got the number (estimate): $150M × 95% margin × (1 − 20% tax) ÷ 202M diluted shares ≈ +$0.56
    • Expected value: 27% × $0.56 ≈ +$0.15
    • What it is: Usage-based or larger fixed renewals that take combined licensing from ~$130M/yr (reported) to ≥$280M/yr.
    • Why it's not priced in: Contracted 2027 licensing is only $30.1M [3]. Other revenue grows ~24% [1]. RBC calls the $300–500M hopes optimistic [20].
    • Trigger to watch: RPO in the Q3 10-Q (~early Nov) or FY2026 10-K. Any 8-K or joint announcement with Google or OpenAI.
    • Why this probability: Reddit's leverage is higher (API closure, court wins), but the WSJ report shows talks are hard, and comparable deals mostly run $5–60M/yr [39].
  • Ads on search, Answers and shopping reach scale — 33% chance by end-2027
    • Impact on revenue: +$150M, +3.4% vs FY2027 consensus
    • Impact on EPS: +$0.42 per share, +4.3% vs FY2027 consensus
    • How we got the number (estimate): $150M × 70% incremental margin × 0.8 ÷ 202M ≈ +$0.42
    • Expected value: 33% × $0.42 ≈ +$0.14
    • What it is: Ads on search-results and Answers pages, plus shopping listing ads, reaching about 3% of revenue.
    • Why it's not priced in: No launch date or revenue has been disclosed. Consensus growth slows to ~31% in FY2027 [19].
    • Trigger to watch: A search-ads launch announcement; any disclosure of query volume or revenue.
    • Why this probability: The infrastructure exists and the COO says so, but 80M weekly searchers is a small base and AI assistants compete for the queries.
  • US daily users return to sequential growth through app retention or links in Google AI Mode — 20% chance by end-2027
    • Impact on revenue: +$134M, +3% vs FY2027 consensus
    • Impact on EPS: +$0.37 per share, +3.8% vs FY2027 consensus
    • How we got the number (estimate): $134M × 70% × 0.8 ÷ 202M ≈ +$0.37
    • Expected value: 20% × $0.37 ≈ +$0.07
    • What it is: Several quarters of US DAUq growth above ~2% a quarter, from retention gains (+50% new-user retention [1]) or more links shown in AI answers.
    • Why it's not priced in: The post-Q2 fall priced continued erosion [18]. Sistrix's trend is negative [26].
    • Trigger to watch: Q3 and Q4 US DAUq above 53.5M. Sistrix visibility turning up.
    • Why this probability: One analyst cites positive tracker data [24], but Sistrix, Similarweb and Google's own incentives point the other way.
  • A licence or damages from the Anthropic or Perplexity/SerpApi cases — 22% chance within 36 months
    • Impact on revenue: +$50M/yr, +1.1% vs FY2027 consensus
    • Impact on EPS: +$0.19 per share, +2.0% vs FY2027 consensus
    • How we got the number (estimate): $50M × 95% × 0.8 ÷ 202M ≈ +$0.19
    • Expected value: 22% × $0.19 ≈ +$0.04
    • What it is: A settlement that includes a licence, as Google's $60M deal shows big buyers will pay.
    • Why it's not priced in: Analysts do not model litigation outcomes.
    • Trigger to watch: The Anthropic demurrer ruling (SF Superior Court); discovery in S.D.N.Y.
    • Why this probability: The claims survived early motions [29,30], but these cases often run for years, and Anthropic is fighting.

Headwinds NOT in the forecasts

  • Search and AI changes cut US daily users ≥5% over two quarters — 27% chance within 36 months
    • Impact on revenue: −$180M, −4.0% vs FY2027 consensus $4.47B
    • Impact on EPS: −$0.50 per share, −5.2% vs FY2027 consensus $9.69
    • How we got the number (estimate): $180M × 70% decremental margin × 0.8 ÷ 202M ≈ −$0.50
    • Expected value: 27% × −$0.50 ≈ −$0.13
    • What it is: A core update, a wider AI Mode rollout or a further demotion of machine-translated pages.
    • Why it's not priced in: FY2027 consensus still has +31% revenue growth [19].
    • Trigger to watch: Q3 US DAUq below 53.2M; management moving from "choppy" to giving numbers.
    • Why this probability: Raised from 24% in report #1, because Sistrix now shows a "strong negative" trend, Q2 machine-translation traffic fell, and Similarweb fell in September. Google's reliance on Reddit content for AI answers limits how hard it would cut.
  • 2027 ad slowdown takes ten points off Reddit's growth — 18% chance by end-2027
    • Impact on revenue: −$300M, −6.7% vs FY2027 consensus
    • Impact on EPS: −$0.71 per share, −7.3% vs FY2027 consensus
    • How we got the number (estimate): $300M × 60% decremental margin × 0.8 ÷ 202M ≈ −$0.71
    • Expected value: 18% × −$0.71 ≈ −$0.13
    • What it is: A tariff or rate shock that makes advertisers cut test budgets. Off-cycle 2027 already starts weaker (~5.7% global ad growth) [40].
    • Why it's not priced in: Consensus FY2027 growth of 31% assumes a healthy ad market.
    • Trigger to watch: Meta and Google ad growth slowing; Reddit's active-advertiser growth below 40%.
    • Why this probability: No current sign, but the Fed is hiking and 2022 showed peers slowing to single digits.
  • Google licence lapses and AI access is cut, with a knock-on effect on search — 13% chance by end-2027
    • Impact on revenue: −$150M (−$60M licence and −$90M traffic), −3.4% vs FY2027 consensus
    • Impact on EPS: −$0.48 per share, −4.9% vs FY2027 consensus
    • How we got the number (estimate): ($60M × 95% + $90M × 70%) × 0.8 ÷ 202M ≈ −$0.48
    • Expected value: 13% × −$0.48 ≈ −$0.06
    • What it is: No renewal, Reddit blocks Google's AI crawlers, and search treatment worsens, by design or not.
    • Why it's not priced in: Consensus assumes some renewal.
    • Trigger to watch: RPO near zero by Q2-27 with no new contracts; public statements by either side.
    • Why this probability: Both sides gain from a deal, but the WSJ report shows a cutoff is actively discussed.
  • Age checks spread to US or EU logged-out users — 15% chance within 36 months
    • Impact on revenue: −$90M, −2.0% vs FY2027 consensus
    • Impact on EPS: −$0.25 per share, −2.6% vs FY2027 consensus
    • How we got the number (estimate): $90M × 70% × 0.8 ÷ 202M ≈ −$0.25
    • Expected value: 15% × −$0.25 ≈ −$0.04
    • What it is: KOSA, state app-store laws (Texas SB 2420 is in force on appeal) or DSA minors guidance adding friction for anonymous visitors.
    • Why it's not priced in: Analysts treat regulation as a cost line.
    • Trigger to watch: A KOSA floor vote; DSA risk-assessment findings in early 2027.
    • Why this probability: The direction is clear, but US federal passage keeps stalling and courts block many state laws.
  • A product setback after the CPO's departure — not quantifiable
    • What it is: Slower delivery on onboarding, retention and Answers while Reddit searches for a new product chief.
    • Why not quantifiable: No successor, roadmap change or timeline has been disclosed, so there is no basis to size it.
    • Trigger to watch: Whether Reddit names a successor, and whether Q3 or Q4 product milestones slip.

Investment Risk Score: 30/100 (moderate)

# Factor Weight Measured value Score Why
1 Liquidity & funding runway 15% Cash + securities $2,786.4M, no debt; TTM FCF ≈ $1,018.6M; revolver $494.4M available to 2030 5 FCF-positive with net cash. No funding need.
2 Leverage 10% Net cash ≈ 2.4x TTM adj EBITDA ($1,171.8M); no borrowings 5 Net cash.
3 Dilution (12 months + overhang) 10% FD shares +0.2% y/y; weighted basic +3.7%; options + RSUs 14.7M ≈ 7.7%; $239.6M buyback in H1; Q3 stock pay up 31–45% 25 In the +0–3% band on the company metric, with buybacks offsetting stock pay. The higher basic growth keeps it off the bottom of the band.
4 Profitability 10% TTM FCF margin ≈ 36.7%; Q2 GAAP op margin 28.8%; FCF after stock pay ≈ 24% 8 Well above the 15% threshold even after stock pay.
5 Revenue quality & concentration 10% Ads 94.6% (auction, uncommitted); top 10 advertisers 21% FY25, none disclosed at ≥10%; licensing from two buyers (5%); ~60% of users logged-out, mostly via search 35 No customer concentration, but the revenue isn't contracted and the traffic depends on one gatekeeper.
6 Execution & track record 10% Revenue and EBITDA beat the top of guidance 8/8, by ≥6.1%; US DAUq goal missed after "top priority"; CTO, CPO and CLO changes in 6 months; no restatement seen 30 Hits its money guidance, but misses on users and now has leadership churn.
7 Competitive position & disruption 10% Sistrix "strong negative"; AI Overviews on 54% of US keywords; AI answers substitute for visits; Meta Forum test; unique 20-year archive 58 Contested: the content is unique, but the route to it is controlled by others and AI is reshaping it.
8 Cyclicality & commodity/macro sensitivity 10% ~95% ads; newer performance budgets; peers slowed to low single digits in 2022 and Meta shrank 55 Cyclical, as ad-funded platforms are, and less established with advertisers than Meta or Google.
9 Regulatory, legal & geopolitical 5% DSA VLOP (compliance ~end-2026, fine cap 6%); ICO £14.47M under appeal; Australia under-16 ban; KOSA; securities suit MTD pending; no China exposure 45 Material but contained. Age-verification rules are the main path to a traffic hit.
10 Valuation & expectations 10% EV/sales 10.1x trailing (Meta 8.1x, Alphabet 9.4x); fwd P/E 26.5x; NTM EV/EBITDA ~19.6x vs 46–50x a year ago; Q3 consensus above guide; short interest 15.7% of float, 4.6 days 50 Rich against peers on sales, though far cheaper than its own history. Heavy short interest.

Overall: weighted average = 0.15×5 + 0.10×5 + 0.10×25 + 0.10×8 + 0.10×35 + 0.10×30 + 0.10×58 + 0.10×55 + 0.05×45 + 0.10×50 = 0.75 + 0.5 + 2.5 + 0.8 + 3.5 + 3.0 + 5.8 + 5.5 + 2.25 + 5.0 = 29.6 → 30.

Change vs last: −16 (46 → 30).

  • Method (most of it): the old 6-area method put 25% on "business & competition" (58) and 15% on "dependency" (62). The 10-factor method gives separate weight to liquidity, leverage and profitability, where Reddit scores 5–8.
  • Substance, up: the US DAUq decline is now set against the "top priority" quote, Sistrix shows a "strong negative" trend, the CPO leaves on 10-19, the CTO and CLO changed, and Q3 stock pay steps up.
  • Substance, down: the beat record is 8/8 (not 5), measured FCF is ~$1.0B TTM, and there is an active buyback and a confirmed $500M undrawn revolver.
  • Net substantive change: slightly higher risk. The like-for-like competitive and execution scores would be a few points worse than report #1's.

Ranking check: Reddit (30) sits just above APP and KVYO (28) and just below MNTN (32). It has a stronger balance sheet and FCF than all three, but more of its audience depends on a gatekeeper (Google) than KVYO's does on Shopify, and it carries more traffic risk than APP's tie to the app stores. It is safer than MNTN, which has an options overhang and faces Amazon and Walmart/Vibe competition with no lock-in.

Conclusion

  • What you are really betting on: That Reddit's human conversations stay valuable and reachable as AI changes search. Specifically: that pricing gains and the direct/app audience grow fast enough to outrun a shrinking, Google-controlled logged-out audience, and that Google and OpenAI keep paying for the data.
  • The 2–3 things that will decide the outcome:
    1. US daily users in Q3 and Q4 2026, now the only public user signal: is 53.2M a floor or the start of a decline?
    2. The Google and OpenAI licence renewals (contracted revenue drops to $30M for 2027): a step-up, a usage-based model or a cutoff.
    3. Whether ad pricing (+40%) and new ad surfaces (search, Answers, shopping, Max) keep revenue growth above ~30% into 2027 with a flat audience.
  • Signposts:
    • Confirm the bull case:
      • Q3 US DAUq above 53.5M.
      • RPO rises in the Q3 10-Q or FY2026 10-K.
      • A search or Answers ads launch with disclosed traction.
      • A new CPO named quickly from a community-product background.
    • Break it:
      • A second sequential US DAUq decline, below 53.2M.
      • A Q3 revenue beat below ~5% vs the top of guidance, or a Q4 guide below ~$1.0B.
      • RPO keeps running off with no renewal by Q1-27.
      • Sistrix or Similarweb declines continue through Q4 alongside management describing a quantified search loss.
  • New since the last report:
    • The CPO leaves for Mojang on 10-19, after the CTO (April) and CLO (September) changes. Product leadership churn is a new bear argument.
    • The beat record is 8/8 quarters, not 5, and RPO shows exactly $30.1M contracted for 2027. Both strengthen the "money works, renewals are a cliff" framing.
    • Third-party Q3 traffic data lean negative (Sistrix "strong negative", Similarweb September −8.5% m/m), against a single-source Needham claim of "bullish" tracker data. The Google risk got a little worse, not better.

Open questions & data gaps

  • Q3-26 earnings date: not announced as of 2026-10-12. Third-party estimates range from 10-29 to 11-04. This is when Bears #1–2 get tested.
  • Google share of traffic: still no company figure. The only measures are the 59.6% logged-out share and Similarweb desktop data. Matters for sizing Bear #1.
  • Licence terms and dates: no primary source gives expiry dates or per-partner values. Only the RPO schedule and press estimates (Google ~$60M/yr; OpenAI ~$70M/yr, unconfirmed).
  • Q2-26 10-Q Item 1A: not retrievable this run, so no risk-factor diff vs the 10-K. The 10-Q's legal note says "no responses have been filed" while the plaintiff firm says a motion to dismiss was filed on 02-13. Unreconciled.
  • CTO appointment: Puntambekar is not confirmed by any 8-K or company release. The CPO successor is unknown.
  • Advance / Tencent: the latest Advance 13G cited is from 2024. Newer amendments were not found. No sales by Advance, Tencent or Sam Altman were found.
  • Redburn $110 (2026-04-27): the rating and rationale were not found.
  • Needham's traffic data (10-09): reported only by StockStory, with no figures.
  • AI citation studies: the Semrush/Promptwatch dates conflict (2025 vs 2026). Only the 2025 episode is confirmed (stock −9.5% on 2025-10-01).
  • Discord IPO and Meta Forum usage: no public S-1 and no download or MAU data found.
Sources
  1. Q2 2026 shareholder letter (8-K exhibit) — Reddit/SEC — 2026-07-30 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001713445/000171344526000098/exhibit992q226.htm
  2. Q2 2026 earnings press release (8-K Ex. 99.1) — Reddit/SEC — 2026-07-30 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001713445/000171344526000098/earningspressreleaseq226.htm
  3. Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 — Reddit/SEC — 2026-07-31 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001713445/000171344526000100/rddt-20260630.htm
  4. Q1 2026 shareholder letter — Reddit/SEC — 2026-04-30 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001713445/000171344526000067/exhibit992q126.htm
  5. Q4 2025 shareholder letter — Reddit/SEC — 2026-02-05 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000171344526000020/exhibit992q425.htm
  6. Q3 2025 shareholder letter — Reddit/SEC — 2025-10-30 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000171344525000225/exhibit992q325.htm
  7. Q1 2026 earnings call transcript — Reddit IR — 2026-04-30 — https://s203.q4cdn.com/380862485/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/Reddit-Q1-26-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf
  8. Q4 2025 earnings call transcript — Reddit IR — 2026-02-05 — https://s203.q4cdn.com/380862485/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/Reddit-Q4-25-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf
  9. Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (third party) — AllMind AI — 2026-07-30 — https://allmind.ai/earnings/event/2940574
  10. Reddit Q2 2026 earnings call summary — Motley Fool via Webull — 2026-07-30 — https://www.webull.com/news/15341695081587712
  11. Form 10-K for FY2025 — Reddit/SEC — 2026-02 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000171344526000022/rddt-20251231.htm
  12. Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-03-31 — Reddit/SEC — 2026-05-01 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001713445/000171344526000069/rddt-20260331.htm
  13. DEF 14A proxy statement — Reddit/SEC — 2026-04-23 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000171344526000060/rddt-20260423.htm
  14. Form 8-K Item 5.02 (Chief Legal Officer change) — Reddit/SEC — 2026-08-12 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000171344526000107/rddt-20260812.htm
  15. Form 4, Steven Huffman (9/29 sale; earlier filings 5/29–9/15 in the same EDGAR folder) — SEC — 2026-10-01 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000182701126000041/0001827011-26-000041.txt
  16. Form 4, Jennifer Wong (9/14 sale; 6/16 and 8/14 filings also read) — SEC — 2026-09-16 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000166365126000021/0001663651-26-000021.txt
  17. Form 4, director Sauerberg (8/25 sale, no 10b5-1 box) — SEC — 2026-08 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000192441226000004/0001924412-26-000004.txt
  18. Reddit analyst forecast and stock page — MarketBeat — retrieved 2026-10-12 — https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/RDDT/forecast/
  19. RDDT forecast and statistics; META, GOOGL, PINS, SNAP statistics — StockAnalysis — retrieved 2026-10-12 — https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rddt/forecast/
  20. Reddit may benefit from Google AI search changes, RBC says — MT Newswires via Placera — 2026-05-12 — https://www.placera.se/telegram/reddit-may-benefit-from-google-ai-search-changes-rbc-says-20260512
  21. Reddit plunges 36% year to date — Zacks via Yahoo Finance — 2026-10-05 — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/reddit-plunges-36-date-buy-145900700.html
  22. Reddit stock fell 8% in a day on a Google licensing report — TIKR — 2026-07-26 — https://www.tikr.com/blog/reddit-stock-fell-8-in-a-day-on-a-google-licensing-report-heres-where-the-stock-could-go-in-2026
  23. Reddit stock jumps 13% after Q1 2026 earnings beat — TIKR — 2026-05-02 — https://www.tikr.com/blog/reddit-stock-jumps-13-after-q1-2026-earnings-beat-what-a-223-street-target-means-for-investors
  24. Reddit (RDDT) stock is up, what you need to know — StockStory — 2026-10-09 — https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nyse/rddt/news/why-up-down/reddit-rddt-stock-is-up-what-you-need-to-know-5
  25. Reddit weighs tighter Google AI data access in deal renewal talks (citing WSJ 2026-07-22) — WinBuzzer — 2026-07-23 — https://winbuzzer.com/2026/07/23/reddit-weighs-tighter-google-ai-access-in-renewal-talks-xcxwbn/
  26. Reddit domain analysis — Sistrix — 2026-09-04 (page update) — https://www.sistrix.com/blog/reddit-domain-analysis/
  27. reddit.com traffic analytics (September 2026) — Similarweb — retrieved 2026-10-12 — https://www.similarweb.com/website/reddit.com/
  28. Reddit to halt public Data API access in March 2027 as 14,000 apps register — PPC Land — 2026-09-30 — https://ppc.land/reddit-to-halt-public-data-api-access-in-march-2027-as-14-000-apps-register/
  29. Reddit v. SerpApi LLC — Loeb & Loeb — 2026-08 — https://www.loeb.com/en/insights/publications/2026/08/reddit-v-serpapi-llc
  30. Reddit gets Anthropic AI scraping suit sent back to state court — Bloomberg Law — 2026-03 — https://news.bloomberglaw.com/litigation/reddit-gets-anthropic-ai-scraping-suit-sent-back-to-state-court
  31. Reddit, Inc. securities class action (Tamraz v. Reddit, 25-cv-05144) — Kessler Topaz — 2026 — https://www.ktmc.com/new-cases/reddit-inc
  32. ChatGPT, Reddit, Roblox to adhere to EU's "very large platform" rules — Reuters via The Star — 2026-08-31 — https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2026/08/31/chatgpt-reddit-roblox-to-adhere-to-eu039s-very-large-platform-rules
  33. ICO fines Reddit £14.47 million for children's privacy failures — SCL — 2026-02 — https://www.scl.org/ico-fines-reddit-14-47-million-for-childrens-privacy-failures/
  34. Blackburn & Blumenthal celebrate Commerce Committee passage of KOSA — U.S. Senate — 2026-08-05 — https://www.blackburn.senate.gov/2026/8/blackburn-blumenthal-celebrate-commerce-committee-passage-of-bipartisan-kids-online-safety-act
  35. Reddit stock drops 5% as Meta launches Forum — Shacknews — 2026-05-22 — https://www.shacknews.com/article/149271/facebook-groups-app-forum-reddit-meta
  36. Xbox appoints new leaders for Mojang and franchise experiences — PocketGamer.biz — 2026-10-09 — https://www.pocketgamer.biz/xbox-appoints-new-leaders-for-mojang-and-franchise-experiences/
  37. Minecraft's new boss is the former chief product officer of Reddit — PC Gamer — 2026-10 — https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/minecrafts-new-boss-is-the-former-chief-product-officer-of-reddit/
  38. Reddit CTO Chris Slowe to step down, becomes senior technical fellow — Newsquawk — 2026-04-23 — https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/reddit-rddt-cto-and-founding-engineer-chris-slowe-has-decided-to-step-down-and-transition-into-new-role-as-cos-senior-technical-fellow
  39. Every AI content licensing deal, mapped (2023–2026) — LLMPulse — 2026 — https://llmpulse.ai/blog/ai-content-licensing-deals/
  40. WPP Media mid-year forecast — PPC Land — 2026-06-16 — https://ppc.land/wpp-media-sees-ai-as-advertisings-1-3-trillion-growth-engine-in-2026/
  41. Pinterest Q4 and FY2022 results (8-K) — SEC — 2023-02-06 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629323000021/q4-22xpressrelease.htm
  42. Reddit's citations in ChatGPT fall — Semrush blog — undated — https://www.semrush.com/blog/reddits-citations-in-chatgpt-fall/
  43. Reddit shares fall in heavy trading after study shows drop in ChatGPT citations — Seeking Alpha — 2025-10-01 — https://seekingalpha.com/news/4500600-reddit-shares-fall-steeply-ahead-of-the-opening-bell
  44. Q2 2025 shareholder letter — Reddit/SEC — 2025-07-31 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000171344525000194/exhibit992q225.htm
  45. Report predicts record ad spending for 2026 midterms (AdImpact) — Campaigns & Elections — 2026 — https://campaignsandelections.com/industry-news/report-predicts-record-ad-spending-for-2026-midterms/
  46. Q1 2025 shareholder letter — Reddit/SEC — 2025-05-01 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000171344525000100/exhibit992q125.htm
  47. Q4 2024 shareholder letter — Reddit/SEC — 2025-02-12 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000171344525000016/exhibit992q424.htm
  48. Q3 2024 shareholder letter (and Q2 2024 letter for the Q3-24 guide: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000171344524000052/q22024shareholderletter-.htm) — Reddit/SEC — 2024-10-29 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000171344524000099/exhibit992q324.htm
  49. Reddit blocks Bing as Google clicks grow like crazy — Similarweb — 2024 — https://www.similarweb.com/blog/insights/social-media-news/reddit-blocks-bing-as-google-clicks-grow-like-crazy/
  50. Xbox establishes XP division, replaces Mojang CEO; successor takes office October 19 — Inven Global — 2026-10 — https://www.invenglobal.com/articles/26978/xbox-establishes-xp-division-replaces-mojang-ceo
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Disclaimer. AI-generated research and podcast (Claude by Anthropic, voices by Google Gemini) for educational purposes — not financial advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Willem (MR.INVEST) owns this stock. Check the company’s own filings before making any decision.
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