Stock Analysis · Bulls vs Bears

i-80 Gold Corp. IAUX

🐂 Bulls vs Bears 🐻Report #212 Oct 2026
★ Willem owns this stock · 2.4% of the portfolio
64
high risk▲ +3 vs last
🐂 9vs10 🐻
Bears lead
60%
▲ Chance of the biggest tailwind the forecasts miss
40%
▼ Chance of the biggest headwind the forecasts miss
The verdict

The March 2026 recapitalisation bought i-80 time, not safety. This run's numbers show cash burn of about $186M a year against about $415M of Lone Tree spend still to come, so Phase 1 needs the accordion and the in-the-money warrant cash. The plan also leaves a revenue gap in H2 2027, just before 39,978 oz of prepay deliveries start in January 2028. The evidence leans to "real asset, unproven timetable". The…

🎙️ Bulls vs Bears podcast — i-80 Gold Corp.
Alex and Sam debate every bull and bear argument · 14:44
0:0014:44
⤓ Download

Written by Claude (Anthropic’s AI) from public sources · Willem owns IAUX · AI can make mistakes — numbers in brackets point to the sources · Not financial advice

🐂 Bull arguments 9

  1. 1Owning the autoclave lifts payable gold from ~56% to ~87%Strong
  2. 2No debt maturity before 2031 and $465M cash in handMedium
  3. 3Spot gold sits ~50% above every study price deckMedium
  4. 4Granite Creek has a reserve and is finally rampingMedium
  5. 5The CEO bought 2M shares on market; no insider sold on marketMedium
  6. 6The toll miller is NGM, which markets spare autoclave capacityMedium
  7. 7Large Nevada resource priced at roughly $208 per M&I ounceMedium
  8. 8Nevada consolidation makes i-80 a logical targetWeak
  9. 9Federal permitting is getting fasterWeak

🐻 Bear arguments 10

  1. 1A revenue gap in H2 2027, just before prepay deliveries beginHigh
  2. 2Cash burn of ~$186M a year leaves Phase 1 barely fundedHigh
  3. 3Almost every technical study has slipped, Cove four timesHigh
  4. 4196M warrants and 149M convert shares hang over the stockMedium
  5. 5Royalties, prepay, NPI and silver stream take gold firstMedium
  6. 6The 150–200 koz 2028 target lacks a study behind itMedium
  7. 7Granite Creek's own study is thin at its price deckMedium
  8. 8Sales are hostage to NGM's processing scheduleMedium
  9. 9Lone Tree's key permits are still not confirmedMedium
  10. 10Gold has turned while costs keep risingMedium

Bull arguments show how well they survive the devil’s advocate (strong / medium / weak); bear arguments show the damage they could do after the counter-argument (high / medium / low).

Bull case

🐂 Bull #1Owning the autoclave lifts payable gold from ~56% to ~87%

  • The point: Today i-80 is paid for only part of the gold in its refractory ore, because the third-party processor keeps the rest as its fee. Once its own Lone Tree plant runs, i-80 keeps the gold and the toll fee disappears.
  • Evidence:
    • The payable factor on mineralised material sold to third parties fell from 58% (2024) and 59% (2025) to 56% in 2026 [1,2].
    • The CFO said on the Q4 2025 call that the sulphide toll charge is "about 275 to $280 per ton", which is roughly three times the planned own-plant cost [16].
    • Granite Creek's processing cost per tonne rose from $133 a year earlier to $325 in Q2 2026 as more sulphide went to the toll miller [1].
    • The Granite Creek feasibility study assumes 87% recovery at Lone Tree [10].
    • It puts 2028–32 cash cost at $1,827/oz and AISC (all-in sustaining cost) at $1,915/oz, against a life-of-mine AISC of $2,273/oz that includes the toll-milling years [10].
    • Management claims a $1,000–1,500/oz cash-margin uplift [3,14].
  • Why it matters: Interpretation: the step from ~56% to ~87% means about 55% more payable ounces from the same tonnes. That is the only lever in the story that does not depend on the gold price, and it justifies a $430M plant for a company with a ~$1.4B market value.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate:
    • The plant has been idle since 2007.
    • The uplift only starts once the plant is commissioned (target Q4 2027) and ramped up.
    • Lone Tree's fixed costs need full feed from mines that have under-delivered.
    • The $1,000–1,500/oz figure is management's and has not been verified independently.
    • The two cost figures for tolling do not reconcile: "$275–280/t" on the call versus "$53.92–238.88/t depending on gold price" in the SRK report [9,16].
  • Verdict: Strong The payability arithmetic is robust and is confirmed in the filings. The open questions are timing and ramp-up, not whether the uplift exists.

🐂 Bull #2No debt maturity before 2031 and $465M cash in hand

  • The point: A year ago i-80 had a going-concern warning. Now it has more cash than debt, and no principal falls due before April 2031.
  • Evidence:
    • Cash was $464.6M at 2026-06-30 [1].
    • Debt was $445.7M [1]:
      • $287.5M of 3.75% unsecured converts due 2031-04-15, with no financial maintenance covenants;
      • a $150M gold prepay repaid in kind (39,978 oz from January 2028 to June 2030);
      • a $19M silver agreement with no minimum deliveries left.
    • The going-concern paragraph in the FY25 audit report [2] is gone: the Q1 and Q2 10-Qs say substantial doubt "does not exist" [1].
    • Undrawn funding:
      • a $100M prepay accordion, which the company "anticipates executing" in H1 2027 [1];
      • $25M of Franco-Nevada money that is conditional on Mineral Point spend [1].
  • Why it matters: It removes the forced, cheap equity raises that hurt holders in 2024–25. The May 2025 raise was at $0.50 [12].
  • 😈 Devil's advocate:
    • TTM free cash flow was −$185.8M, rising from −$18.5M (Q3-25) to −$71.1M (Q2-26) [1,2,12].
    • At the H1 2026 pace the cash lasts about 22 months.
    • More than $400M of the $430M Lone Tree budget was still unspent at 6/30 [1,3].
    • The accordion is "subject to customary conditions and lender approval" [1].
    • The prepay has "customary financial covenants" that are not disclosed [1].
    • See Bear #2.
  • Verdict: Medium The maturity wall is genuinely far away, but liquidity is thinner than "$465M cash" suggests.

🐂 Bull #3Spot gold sits ~50% above every study price deck

  • The point: All published i-80 economics use $2,175–2,750/oz. Gold trades around $4,150, so the real economics are far better than the studies show.
  • Evidence:
    • Granite Creek after-tax NPV(5%) at different gold prices [10]:
      • $41M at $2,500;
      • $118M at $2,750 (base case);
      • $467M at $4,000;
      • $598M at $4,500.
    • Reserves are priced at $2,500/oz [10], and the Mineral Point PEA used $2,175/oz [14].
    • Realised price was $4,522/oz in Q2 2026 and $4,801 in H1 [1].
    • Spot gold traded at about $4,112–4,180 on 2026-10-08 [39].
    • Gold forecasts:
      • Goldman cut its end-2026 forecast to $4,650 but held $5,400 for end-2027 (2026-09-23) [36].
      • JPMorgan saw Q4-26 at $4,500, with risks to the downside (2026-07-06) [37].
  • Why it matters: A small, high-cost developer is a leveraged gold instrument. Each $100/oz moves its margin far more than a low-cost major's.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate:
    • The leverage cuts both ways: gold is about 19% below its January 2026 peak [36,39].
    • Costs rise with price. In the Granite Creek table, AISC rises from $1,915 at $2,750 to about $2,071–2,340 at higher decks, because the 10% net-profit interest and NSR royalties scale with price [10].
    • Florida Canyon, a Nevada peer, saw AISC rise 28% y/y to $3,371/oz in Q2 2026 [34].
    • None of this is specific to i-80.
  • Verdict: Medium The tailwind is real today but shared by every gold stock, and part of it is clawed back by price-linked costs.

🐂 Bull #4Granite Creek has a reserve and is finally ramping

  • The point: The only producing mine passed its first bankability test, and production is climbing.
  • Evidence:
    • First proven and probable reserve: 556.5 koz at 7.87 g/t, with 87% recovery giving 485 koz recovered [10].
    • Average output is about 75 koz a year in 2028–32, roughly 15 koz a year more than the PEA [10].
    • Sustaining capital is $83M lower than in the PEA [10].
    • Q2 2026 Granite Creek underground output was 8,634 oz, up from 1,941 oz a year earlier.
    • H1 output was 17,532 oz, against 30–40 koz full-year guidance that has been reaffirmed [1,3].
    • The COO said "approximately 15 headings" are available, so he expects "mine grades and tons to improve in Q3" [14].
  • Why it matters: It proves the team can mine this ground. It also gives Lone Tree a base feed that the rest of the plan builds on.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate:
    • Life-of-mine average output is only 53.9 koz a year [10].
    • Q2 lost high-grade tonnes to a rib failure that needed MSHA clearance, plus a delayed ventilation raise [1,14].
    • Pumping is "near capacity", and inflows are expected to exceed 2,500–2,700 gpm [9].
    • The low end of 2026 guidance needs about 12.5 koz more in H2. That is achievable, but not yet reported.
  • Verdict: Medium The ramp-up is real but modest, and Q3 (results expected around 2026-11-12, aggregator date [42]) is the test.

🐂 Bull #5The CEO bought 2M shares on market; no insider sold on market

  • The point: Insiders have put real money in at prices near today's.
  • Evidence:
    • CEO Richard Young bought 1,000,000 shares at $1.40 on 2026-03-25 and another 1,000,000 at $1.62 on 2026-08-18. Both were open-market purchases (code P), taking him to 5.97M shares [21].
    • Other open-market buys [21]:
      • Savarie (General Counsel): 6,500 + 4,575 shares;
      • Seaman: 32,000;
      • Butler: 17,730 (filed a month late);
      • Yopps: 50,000.
    • In total insiders bought about 2.11M shares, worth about $3.2M [21].
    • The only sales were option- or RSU-linked: Begeman sold 24,356 shares after an option exercise (May) and 19,231 shares after an RSU vest (September) [21].
  • Why it matters: The CEO has built and sold two gold companies, Teranga and Argonaut. Buying about $3M of stock while the study dates slip suggests he believes the delays are not structural.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate:
    • About $3M is small next to a ~$1.4B company and to the CEO's past exits.
    • 2026 RSU grants, which vest in 2029, add to his holding at no cost [21].
    • Buying signals conviction, not execution.
  • Verdict: Medium It is a clean signal, confirmed on the Form 4s, but a soft one.

🐂 Bull #6The toll miller is NGM, which markets spare autoclave capacity

  • The point: New this run: the toll processor is now identified. That makes a short toll extension, if Lone Tree slips, more plausible than the 10-K's "no certainty" wording suggests.
  • Evidence:
    • The SRK technical report filed 2026-09-22 says Granite Creek "production will initially be toll milled at a Nevada Gold Mines process facility". It refers to an autoclave circuit that handles "Turquoise Ridge Complex ore", and to capacity of about 30,000 t/month [9].
    • Barrick's NGM page lists the Sage autoclave (about 3.9 Mtpa) as a "strategic 3rd party processing opportunity" [30].
    • The Granite Creek study plans toll milling only "through mid-2027", followed by about six months of stockpiling before Lone Tree starts [10]. So the 2027-12-31 contract end is not the binding date.
  • Why it matters: It shrinks the worst case for a Lone Tree delay: a supplier that advertises spare capacity is likely to sell more of it.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate:
    • The extension terms would be set by a counterparty that knows i-80 has nowhere else to go.
    • Payability is already drifting down (59% to 56%) [1].
    • NGM has left ounces stranded twice: 6,500 oz at end-2025 and about 5,300 oz at end-June 2026 [1,2].
    • Barrick and Newmont have just settled their JV disputes and are preparing a North American IPO [31,32]. A third party's ore is not their priority.
  • Verdict: Medium A delay is less likely to be a cliff, but it would be expensive.

🐂 Bull #7Large Nevada resource priced at roughly $208 per M&I ounce

  • The point: i-80 controls a lot of ounces in a top jurisdiction for much less per ounce than acquirers pay.
  • Evidence:
    • Resources are 6.5 Moz measured and indicated (M&I) and 7.5 Moz inferred gold, plus about 104 Moz M&I silver at Mineral Point [2].
    • Interpretation: EV is about $1.35B at $1.59 × 865.9M shares, less about $19M of net cash at 6/30 [1,41]. That is about $208 per M&I ounce (my arithmetic).
    • Analyst targets:
      • The 6-analyst mean is US$2.99 (high $3.97, low $2.02) [25].
      • Freedom Broker is Buy at $2.60 (raised 2026-06-03) [27].
      • The "Sell $2.00" in the previous report was very likely a data-vendor error: Freedom's own note says "Buy, maintained", and no source shows a Sell [27].
    • Mineral Point step-out hole: 225.6 m at 1.33 g/t gold and 39.2 g/t silver [10].
  • Why it matters: If even part of the resource converts to funded reserves, the per-ounce gap closes fast.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate:
    • Only 556.5 koz are reserves [10].
    • Mineral Point runs at about 0.5 g/t, needs about $1B of capex and an EIS, and pays its silver to Orion at 20% of spot until 1.2 Moz, then 50% until 2.5 Moz [1].
    • Peer EV/oz figures were not found, so "cheap" is measured against nothing current.
    • The gap has persisted for four years.
  • Verdict: Medium Weak. The ounces are real, but conversion has no date earlier than mid-2027.

🐂 Bull #8Nevada consolidation makes i-80 a logical target

  • The point: i-80 owns the only non-NGM autoclave in Nevada and sits next to NGM at Granite Creek and Cove.
  • Evidence:
    • Consolidation is active in 2026:
      • Equinox closed its Orla deal on 2026-07-31, for about $5.1–5.6B depending on the source [35].
      • Coeur completed its purchase of New Gold in March 2026 [35].
    • Barrick and Newmont settled their NGM disputes on 2026-08-10 [32], and Barrick targets an IPO of its North American assets by end-2026 [31].
    • The 10-Q says i-80 is one of only two Nevada companies with an autoclave [1].
  • Why it matters: A bid would crystallise value before the execution risk is tested.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate:
    • No source links any buyer to i-80.
    • A buyer would inherit:
      • a first-ranking prepay lien;
      • a perpetual Franco-Nevada royalty with a right of first offer on new royalties and streams [17];
      • converts with a change-of-control make-whole (maximum 714.29 shares per $1,000) [18];
      • Orion's offtake.
  • Verdict: Weak It is an option value, not evidence.

🐂 Bull #9Federal permitting is getting faster

  • The point: Faster federal reviews could pull forward Cove, the Granite Creek open pit and Mineral Point, which each assume an EIS of about 3 years [46].
  • Evidence:
    • Interior's April 2025 emergency procedures target about 28 days per EIS for qualifying projects [51].
    • Equinox's South Railroad in Nevada was covered by FAST-41 and got its Record of Decision on 2026-08-17 [35].
  • Why it matters: Each year cut from Phase 2–3 brings forward the large oxide and silver ounces.
  • 😈 Devil's advocate:
    • No i-80 project is on FAST-41 in any filing found.
    • Even after its Record of Decision, South Railroad's first gold slipped from 2027 to 2028 on state permits and water rights [35].
    • The Humboldt basins are over-appropriated for water [50].
  • Verdict: Weak There is no i-80-specific evidence.

Bear case

🐻 Bear #1A revenue gap in H2 2027, just before prepay deliveries begin

  • The point: New this run: the binding risk is not the 2027-12-31 contract end, but the plan itself. The Granite Creek study stops toll milling in mid-2027 and stockpiles ore for about six months ahead of a Q4 2027 start-up [10]. During that time refractory revenue drops to near zero while spending peaks. Then the prepay delivers 1,333 oz a month from January 2028, whether Lone Tree runs or not [1].
  • Evidence:
    • Toll milling runs "through mid-2027, followed by approximately six months of stockpiling" [10].
    • Lone Tree milestones: filtration plant early Q4 2027, first pour Q4 2027 [3].
    • Lone Tree project status:
      • Major construction is only "anticipated to commence in the fourth quarter of 2026" [1].
      • About 30% of the capital was committed at 6/30 ($110.1M) and about 40% by mid-July [1,4].
      • H1 2026 Lone Tree capex was only $15.8M [1].
    • The prepay requires 39,978 oz from January 2028 to June 2030 [1]. Ten deliveries by October 2028 come to about 13,300 oz, worth about $55M at $4,150 (my arithmetic).
  • Why it matters: Interpretation: if first pour slips one or two quarters into 2028, the company has no refractory revenue for 9–12 months while it delivers prepay gold. It would have to use stockpiled ore through NGM at worse terms, or buy gold to deliver. That would hit cash just as the convertible's first coupons, Archimedes ramp-up and Mineral Point drilling compete for it.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument:
    • Lone Tree is "on schedule and on budget" with "minimal contingency drawdown" so far [3,4]. The budget includes about 12% contingency [8].
    • Oxide ore sales and Archimedes oxide continue in the meantime.
    • NGM has spare capacity (Bull #6).
    • The stockpiling plan is a deliberate choice, not a forced one.
  • Severity: High It is the single point where a normal plant-restart delay becomes a funding problem.

🐻 Bear #2Cash burn of ~$186M a year leaves Phase 1 barely funded

  • The point: "Fully funded for all three phases, with no further equity being required" [29] does not survive the arithmetic.

  • Evidence:

    • Quarterly free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) worsened through the year [1,2,12]:

      Quarter Free cash flow
      Q3-25 −$18.5M
      Q4-25 −$39.2M
      Q1-26 −$57.0M
      Q2-26 −$71.1M

    • Operating cash flow alone was −$49.6M in Q2, even before most Lone Tree spending [1].

    • Lone Tree still had more than $400M to spend after 6/30, and the 10-Q says spend is "weighted in the second half" [1].

    • Funding check from 6/30/26 to end-2027 (estimate):

      Item Amount
      Uses Operating burn ~$270–300M
      Lone Tree ~$415M
      Other growth capex ~$30M
      Convertible coupons ~$16M
      Total uses ~$730–760M
      Sources Cash $465M
      US$0.70 warrants, if exercised ~$106M
      Accordion $100M
      Franco-Nevada tranche $25M
      Auramet line (may lapse around 2026-10) $12M
      Total sources ~$708M

    • The COO said labour costs run "5–10% over budget" (Mining Forum Americas, 2026-09-29, AI transcript with low reliability) [29].

  • Why it matters: Interpretation: Phase 1 works only if three things happen:

    • Granite Creek's ramp-up cuts the operating burn;
    • the accordion is granted;
    • warrant holders exercise.

    The last of these depends on the stock staying above $0.70, which is likely. Any overrun on Lone Tree, which has no published contingency figure, or a slower ramp-up, means a new stream, royalty or equity before first gold.

  • 🛡️ Counter-argument:

    • Part of the H1 burn was one-off: interest paid on repaid legacy debt, and inventory build at the processor [1].
    • Exploration spending can be cut, and was already cut by about $10M [1].
    • The CFO says Lone Tree cash spend will land below the 2026 range because of about $30M of accruals [14].
    • The warrants are deep in the money, so their $106M is close to certain if the stock holds.

  • Severity: High. It is not a 2026 problem, but the margin for error through 2027 is about one quarter of burn.

🐻 Bear #3Almost every technical study has slipped, Cove four times

  • The point: The company cannot yet hit its own dates.
  • Evidence:
    • Cove feasibility study [3,7,10,15,19]:
      • target Q1 2026 (set July 2025);
      • then Q2;
      • then Q3 (Q2 release, 2026-08-10);
      • then Q4 2026 (moved quietly inside the 2026-09-21 Granite Creek release).
    • Granite Creek feasibility study: Q1, then Q2, then Q3 2026; delivered 2026-09-21. Under S-K 1300 it is only a pre-feasibility study [10].
    • Archimedes feasibility study: Q2 2026 per the original plan, then late Q1 2027, then about mid-2027 [1,16].
    • Mineral Point: drilling finishes Q1 2027, the PFS comes around mid-2027 [1].
    • Lone Tree capex: "approximately $400 million" expected, then $430M [8].
    • 2025 production: 31,930 oz, at the bottom of the 30–40 koz guidance [2].
    • Kept: the recapitalisation, done by March against an "end Q2 2026" promise [8].
    • Integrity: no material weakness, restatement or auditor change found (Grant Thornton since 2022) [1,2].
  • Why it matters: The same constraints that delay studies (rigs, contractor staffing, bad ground) also govern Lone Tree's construction and Archimedes' ramp-up.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument:
    • Study slips are cheap. The things that cost money (Lone Tree budget and schedule, the recapitalisation, Granite Creek's production guide) have so far held.
    • Partial counter only: this one costs time, not cash.
  • Severity: High Not because studies matter much in themselves, but because they are the best available read on how Lone Tree's schedule will behave.

🐻 Bear #4196M warrants and 149M convert shares hang over the stock

  • The point: Fully diluted, the share count is about 43% higher than today's 865.9M.
  • Evidence: As of 2026-08-10 [1]:
    • 195,977,078 warrants:
      • about 151.9M at US$0.70, expiring 2027-11-16, deep in the money;
      • 34.85M at C$2.15, expiring 2028-05-01;
      • 5.0M at C$1.01 (Orion).
    • About 149.35M convert shares at $1.93, with up to 205.4M on a make-whole [18].
    • 15.4M RSUs, 5.7M PSUs, 5.7M options and 2.1M DSUs.
    • Basic shares rose 6.1% y/y, from 816.0M to 865.9M [1,13].
  • Why it matters: Interpretation: the US$0.70 warrants alone add about 17.5% to the share count by late 2027, at less than half of today's price. That caps the per-share benefit of any re-rating.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument:
    • The warrants bring in about $106M of cash, which Phase 1 needs.
    • The converts are only dilutive above $1.93, i.e. after a re-rating.
    • Short interest of about 94M shares (10.8%) rose sharply in March 2026, when the convertible was issued (54.2M on 3/31 versus 31.6M two weeks earlier) [24]. Part of it is probably a convertible-arbitrage hedge rather than outright bearishness (interpretation).
  • Severity: Medium It is known and partly self-funding, but it permanently lowers per-share upside.

🐻 Bear #5Royalties, prepay, NPI and silver stream take gold first

  • The point: Before a shareholder sees an ounce, others have claims on it.
  • Evidence:
    • Franco-Nevada royalty: 1.5% of NSR to end-2030, then 3.0%, perpetual, on all four core properties. Franco-Nevada also has a right of first offer on new royalties and streams [1,17].
    • Gold prepay: 39,978 oz at a 13.5% effective rate, secured by a first-ranking lien on substantially all assets [1].
    • Granite Creek: a 6% NSR plus a 10% net profit interest [9,10].
    • Orion silver stream: 100% of silver at 20% of spot until 1.2 Moz is delivered (21.9% effective rate), then 50% until 2.5 Moz, then 10%. Orion also has a 20% gold/silver offtake from December 2028 [1,17].
  • Why it matters: These claims scale with price, which mutes the gold-leverage bull (Bull #3). They also make i-80 harder to buy (Bull #8) and harder to refinance.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument:
    • At $4,150 gold the 1.5% royalty costs about $62/oz, which is modest.
    • The prepay is a fixed ounce count that ends in 2030.
    • Silver is a small part of Phase 1 revenue.
  • Severity: Medium

🐻 Bear #6The 150–200 koz 2028 target lacks a study behind it

  • The point: The Phase 1 headline does not add up on studied ounces.
  • Evidence:
    • Granite Creek is about 75 koz a year in 2028–32 [10].
    • Getting to 150–200 koz needs about 75–125 koz from Archimedes, whose feasibility study is now about mid-2027 [1]. Archimedes has not yet produced first gold; that is targeted for Q4 2026 [1,3].
    • The 10-K calls the phase targets "goals", not guidance [2].
    • Consensus is not cleanly sourced. Simply Wall St shows about $418M of FY2027 revenue (3 analysts, currency unclear). Interpretation: that implies about 95 koz at about $4,400 in a year when toll milling stops at mid-year [28].
  • Why it matters: If the 2027–28 consensus is front-loaded, estimate cuts are a likely result of Q4 2026 / FY27 guidance, not an upside.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument:
    • Archimedes drilling has hit high-grade intervals, such as 16.2 g/t over 56.4 m [7].
    • The COO says the Archimedes study delay "does not affect the ramp-up" [14].
    • Management may publish an Archimedes production profile before the full study.
  • Severity: Medium

🐻 Bear #7Granite Creek's own study is thin at its price deck

  • The point: At the study's own prices, the only reserve is barely worth building.
  • Evidence:
    • After-tax NPV(5%) is $118M at $2,750 and $41M at $2,500 [10].
    • Life-of-mine AISC is $2,273/oz and cash cost $2,076/oz [10].
    • The release's sensitivity table appears to swap the "2028–2032" and "LOM" AISC labels relative to its headline figures. That is a small presentation error [10].
    • The study carries a $49.3M allocation of Lone Tree capital [10].
    • SRK flags up to 1.17M tons of petroleum-contaminated backfill as a cost uncertainty (previous report, [9]).
  • Why it matters: Interpretation: at the study prices, Granite Creek mainly exists to feed Lone Tree. The company-level case depends on gold staying high or Archimedes and Cove delivering.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument:
    • Nobody is building at $2,750 gold.
    • At $4,000 the NPV is $467M, roughly a third of i-80's market value [10].
  • Severity: Medium

🐻 Bear #8Sales are hostage to NGM's processing schedule

  • The point: Until Lone Tree runs, i-80 sells refractory gold only when NGM processes it.
  • Evidence:
    • Q2 2026: produced 11,098 oz, sold 5,335 oz [1].
    • About 5,300 recoverable oz were in process at the third-party facility at 6/30, plus about 1,800 oz in inventory [1].
    • Q2 processed 9,055 t of sulphide against 13,568 t mined [1].
    • NGM may take up to 120 days to process delivered ore [16].
    • Revenue concentration [1]:
      • one customer took 42% of Q2 revenue and 66% of H1;
      • the top 3 took 92–96%;
      • two customers held 99% of receivables.
    • Q2 revenue was $24.3M against a ~$44M estimate (Benzinga, via a search summary) [28].
  • Why it matters: Quarterly revenue and cash are lumpy and outside management's control. That makes each quarter's "miss or beat" partly noise, and it adds to working-capital needs.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument:
    • The ounces are delayed, not lost. The 6,500 oz backlog at end-2025 was sold in Q1 2026 (a record $52.4M revenue) [2,5].
    • Gold buyers are interchangeable; the processor is the real concentration.
  • Severity: Medium Q3 will show whether the ~5,300 oz cleared.

🐻 Bear #9Lone Tree's key permits are still not confirmed

  • The point: Lone Tree's permits are on the critical path and still not public.
  • Evidence:
    • The 10-Q says the new and revised air-quality, mercury-control, water-pollution-control and reclamation permits "remain outstanding" [1].
    • Applications went in during Q1 2026, "several permits received", and others pending [1,3].
    • Major construction depends on approval and is "anticipated" for Q4 2026 [1].
    • No filing after 2026-08-10 reports an approval or a construction start [48].
    • The plant must meet new mercury-emission rules [2].
  • Why it matters: A permit delay of one quarter goes straight into Bear #1.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument:
    • The existing components are permitted [52].
    • The company says permitting is "on track" and "aligns with the construction schedule" [1].
    • Nevada's state agency (NDEP) routinely issues mercury permits to operating mines.
  • Severity: Medium It is a binary data gap that the Q3 release should close.

🐻 Bear #10Gold has turned while costs keep rising

  • The point: The macro wind that rescued i-80 has weakened.
  • Evidence:
    • Gold was about $4,150 on 2026-10-08, against a record above $5,100 in late January [36,39].
    • Silver is down about half from its peak, at about $59 [40].
    • The Fed hiked on 2026-09-16, and markets price a further hike [36].
    • Goldman cut its end-2026 gold forecast to $4,650 [36].
    • WGC data: jewellery demand fell 17% y/y in Q2 2026, and ETFs saw outflows [38].
    • Nevada costs: Florida Canyon AISC rose 28% y/y [34], and i-80 itself cites rig and contractor shortages [1].
    • In past downturns, GDXJ fell 61% in 2013 [44], and Allied Nevada (now Hycroft) filed for Chapter 11 in 2015 with $664M of debt [43].
  • Why it matters: A developer burning ~$186M a year needs a supportive equity market for its warrants and accordion. A falling gold price hits both at once.
  • 🛡️ Counter-argument:
    • Gold is still about 50% above every i-80 study deck.
    • Central banks bought 289 t in Q2 2026 [38].
    • Goldman still sees $5,400 by end-2027 [36].
  • Severity: Medium

Tailwinds NOT in the forecasts

Consensus caveat: no clean consensus is available. The FY2028 figures used below are about $622M revenue (1 analyst, Simply Wall St) and EPS of about C$0.26 ≈ US$0.19 (4 analysts, Stocksguide) [28]. Both are low confidence. Share base for FY2028 is about 1.02B, which assumes the US$0.70 warrants are exercised. A 20% tax rate is assumed (estimate).

  • Gold averages ~$4,150+ in 2028, above the ~$3,550 deck consensus appears to use — 60% chance by end-2028

    • Impact on revenue: +$105M, or +17% vs consensus FY2028 (~$622M)
    • Impact on EPS: +$0.074 per share, or +39% vs consensus FY2028 (~US$0.19)
    • How we got the number (estimate):
      • Implied deck: $622M ÷ ~175 koz ≈ $3,550.
      • Revenue: (+$600/oz × 175 koz) ≈ +$105M.
      • EPS: × 90% after royalties and NPI × 80% after tax ÷ 1.02B ≈ +$0.074.
    • Expected value: 0.60 × $0.074 ≈ +$0.044 per share
    • What it is: Spot simply holding near today's level through 2028.
    • Why it's not priced in:
      • Interpretation: the consensus revenue implies a deck well below spot. Sell-side decks for developers are usually conservative.
      • The company studies use $2,500–2,750 [10].
    • Trigger to watch: Broker deck updates after Q3 results, and gold through the December Fed meeting.
    • Why this probability: Goldman ($5,400 end-2027) and most bank paths sit above $4,150 [36,37]. A Fed hiking cycle and ETF outflows make a sub-$4,150 average a real one-in-three-plus risk.

  • Lone Tree sells spare autoclave capacity to third parties — 10% chance within 36 months

    • Impact on revenue: +$60M, or +10% vs consensus FY2028
    • Impact on EPS: +$0.019 per share, or +10% vs consensus FY2028
    • How we got the number (estimate):
      • Spare capacity: nameplate 827,806 tpy [14] minus ~330k t Granite Creek and ~250k t Archimedes ≈ 250k t spare.
      • Revenue: 250k t × ~$250/t fee ≈ $60M.
      • EPS: × 40% margin × 80% ÷ 1.02B ≈ +$0.019.
    • Expected value: 0.10 × $0.019 ≈ +$0.002 per share
    • What it is: i-80 becoming the second toll processor in Nevada, for refractory juniors such as Hycroft, which is testing roasting vs POX [33].
    • Why it's not priced in: Management has not proposed it, and the company's own feed plan takes priority.
    • Trigger to watch: Any toll or processing MOU with a third party.
    • Why this probability: The capacity math suggests spare room only before Cove starts (mid-2029). No buyer has been named.

  • Mineral Point PFS converts ~5 Moz into reserves — 35% chance by end-2027

    • Impact on revenue: not quantifiable for FY2028. Production is no earlier than about 2030, and the capex of about $1B is unfunded.
    • Impact on EPS: not quantifiable for FY2028 (NAV impact only)
    • How we got the number (estimate): n/a
    • Expected value: n/a
    • What it is: The mid-2027 pre-feasibility study turning the flagship resource into reserves. Management targets about 5–5.5 Moz [29].
    • Why it's not priced in: The EV of about $208 per M&I oz gives little credit to the resource. The PEA used $2,175 gold [14].
    • Trigger to watch: Completion of the drilling program (Q1 2027) and the PFS (about mid-2027).
    • Why this probability: The drilling hits support it, but rig shortages have already delayed it once. The company's own statements on PFS-stage reserves come from a low-reliability transcript.

  • A takeover bid — 10% chance within 36 months

    • Impact on revenue: not quantifiable
    • Impact on EPS: not quantifiable (a bid is a price event, not an earnings event)
    • How we got the number (estimate): n/a
    • Expected value: n/a
    • What it is: A bid from NGM, a newly listed Barrick North America, or another consolidator.
    • Why it's not priced in: No approach has been reported.
    • Trigger to watch: Barrick's North America IPO (targeted for end-2026) and NGM's capacity commentary.
    • Why this probability: The strategic fit is real, but the capital stack (Bear #5) and execution risk make buyers likely to wait until Lone Tree runs.

Headwinds NOT in the forecasts

  • Lone Tree first pour slips two quarters or more into 2028 — 40% chance by end-2028

    • Impact on revenue: −$183M, or −29% vs consensus FY2028
    • Impact on EPS: −$0.08 per share, or −42% vs consensus FY2028
    • How we got the number (estimate):
      • Ounces lost: 2 quarters × ~22 koz of net Lone Tree output ≈ 44 koz.
      • Revenue: 44 koz × $4,150 ≈ −$183M.
      • EPS: × ~55% lost margin (fixed costs continue) × 80% ÷ 1.02B ≈ −$0.08.
    • Expected value: 0.40 × −$0.08 ≈ −$0.031 per share
    • What it is: A refurbishment of a 2007-idle autoclave running late, from a late permit, a late construction start or a slow commissioning.
    • Why it's not priced in: Consensus appears to model 2028 at full Phase-1 rates. Management has held "end-2027" unchanged in every update [3,4,8].
    • Trigger to watch: Permit approvals and the major construction start in Q4 2026; the Q1 2027 engineering completion; the H2 2027 filtration plant.
    • Why this probability: Every study slipped in 2026, and the same rig and labour constraints apply. The capex contingency and spending have held so far, which keeps it below a coin-flip.

  • Opex 15% above study costs — 45% chance by FY2028

    • Impact on revenue: none
    • Impact on EPS: −$0.038 per share, or −20% vs consensus FY2028
    • How we got the number (estimate):
      • Cash costs: $1,827/oz × 175 koz ≈ $320M.
      • EPS: $320M × 15% × 80% ÷ 1.02B ≈ −$0.038.
    • Expected value: 0.45 × −$0.038 ≈ −$0.017 per share
    • What it is: Nevada labour, diesel and reagent inflation feeding into the first years of owner-operated costs.
    • Why it's not priced in: The 2028–32 cost base comes from a study dated 2026-09 that uses an effective date of 2026-03-31 [9].
    • Trigger to watch: Granite Creek unit costs in the Q3 and Q4 2026 results; a Lone Tree contingency drawdown.
    • Why this probability: A Nevada peer's AISC rose 28% y/y [34], and i-80 says labour runs 5–10% over budget [29]. A full 15% needs that to persist.

  • Lone Tree ramps slowly or recovers ~80% instead of 87% — 35% chance in FY2028

    • Impact on revenue: −$50M, or −8% vs consensus FY2028
    • Impact on EPS: −$0.035 per share, or −18% vs consensus FY2028
    • How we got the number (estimate):
      • Ounces lost: 150 koz × (87% − 80%) ÷ 87% ≈ 12 koz.
      • Revenue: 12 koz × $4,150 ≈ −$50M.
      • EPS: × 90% × 80% ÷ 1.02B ≈ −$0.035.
    • Expected value: 0.35 × −$0.035 ≈ −$0.012 per share
    • What it is: A normal autoclave learning curve. NGM's toll circuit averaged 91.1% recovery in 2023–25 [9], but that is a run-in plant.
    • Why it's not priced in: The study assumes 87% from the start [10].
    • Trigger to watch: Commissioning reports in Q4 2027 and Q1 2028.
    • Why this probability: A restart is easier than a greenfield build, but the plant's age and the new mercury and filtration circuits add start-up risk.

  • Gold averages ~$3,000 in 2028 — 15% chance by end-2028

    • Impact on revenue: −$96M, or −15% vs consensus FY2028
    • Impact on EPS: −$0.068 per share, or −36% vs consensus FY2028
    • How we got the number (estimate):
      • Revenue: −$550/oz vs the ~$3,550 implied deck × 175 koz ≈ −$96M.
      • EPS: × 90% × 80% ÷ 1.02B ≈ −$0.068.
    • Expected value: 0.15 × −$0.068 ≈ −$0.010 per share
    • What it is: A gold bear market driven by Fed hikes and ETF outflows.
    • Why it's not priced in: The implied deck sits above $3,000.
    • Trigger to watch: Fed decisions, central-bank buying (WGC quarterly data).
    • Why this probability: A roughly 28% fall from spot within two years has happened (2013), but central-bank demand is structurally higher now [36,38].

  • New equity or stream before first gold — 30% chance by end-2027

    • Impact on revenue: none
    • Impact on EPS: −$0.017 per share, or −9% vs consensus FY2028
    • How we got the number (estimate): $150M ÷ $1.50 ≈ 100M new shares on ~1.02B shares ≈ +9.8%, so EPS falls about 9%.
    • Expected value: 0.30 × −$0.017 ≈ −$0.005 per share
    • What it is: A top-up raise or a new stream to cover Lone Tree overruns or the H2 2027 revenue gap (Bears #1 and #2).
    • Why it's not priced in: Management says "no further equity" [29].
    • Trigger to watch:
      • the accordion draw (H1 2027);
      • the pace of warrant exercises;
      • quarterly operating cash flow staying below −$45M.
    • Why this probability: The funding check is about $20–50M short on simple assumptions, so a modest overrun forces a raise. Better Granite Creek cash flow could close the gap.

  • Nevada raises mining taxes in the 2027 session — 6% chance by end-2027

    • Impact on revenue: none
    • Impact on EPS: about −$0.01 per share, or −5% vs consensus FY2028
    • How we got the number (estimate): 2% gross levy × ~$730M of revenue at spot × 80% ÷ 1.02B ≈ −$0.011.
    • Expected value: 0.06 × −$0.011 ≈ −$0.0007 per share
    • What it is: A new attempt to lift or bypass the constitutional 5% net-proceeds cap.
    • Why it's not priced in: No 2027 bill was found; the 2020–21 attempts died [45].
    • Trigger to watch: Pre-filed bills for the February 2027 session.
    • Why this probability: A constitutional change needs two sessions and a ballot. Only a gross-revenue workaround could land before 2028.

Investment Risk Score: 64/100 (high)

# Factor Weight Measured value Score Why
1 Liquidity & funding runway 15% Cash $464.6M; TTM FCF −$185.8M (Q2 −$71.1M); runway 22 months at H1 pace (30 at TTM); ~$415M Lone Tree left; accordion $100M undrawn and conditional 68 Runway is 12–36 months, and the funding check to end-2027 needs the accordion and warrant cash. Kept below 75 by the absence of maturities and going-concern language.
2 Leverage 10% Debt $445.7M vs cash $464.6M (net cash ~$19M at 6/30); EBITDA negative; prepay 13.5% with first lien; no maturity before 2031 58 Net cash today, but large debt against negative EBITDA, and the net position turns to net debt as Lone Tree spending runs.
3 Dilution 10% Shares +6.1% y/y (816.0M→865.9M); overhang ~374M (196M warrants, 149M convert shares, ~29M awards) ≈ 43% 62 Realised dilution is in the 3–10% band. The overhang, including ~152M US$0.70 warrants that will almost surely be exercised (+17.5%), pushes it up a band.
4 Profitability 10% TTM revenue $130.0M; gross margin 25%; FCF margin −143%; Q2 operating margin −140% 80 Deep losses while building. Positive gross margin on the Granite Creek ore stops it reaching the top of the scale.
5 Revenue quality & concentration 10% One producing mine; one processor (NGM) for all refractory ore; top customer 66% of H1 revenue, top 3 96% 76 A single asset and a single processor. The commodity itself can be sold to anyone, so it is not the maximum.
6 Execution & track record 10% Cove study slipped 4 times, Granite Creek 3, Archimedes 2; 2025 production at the bottom of guidance; Lone Tree $400M→$430M; recap early; no material weakness 70 Frequent date misses, with the costly items (budget, recap) held so far.
7 Competitive position & disruption 10% Price taker; one of two autoclave owners in Nevada; life-of-mine AISC $2,273/oz 45 A scarce processing asset once it runs, but small and high-cost today.
8 Cyclicality & commodity sensitivity 10% ~100% gold (silver streamed); Granite Creek NPV $41M at $2,500 vs $467M at $4,000; GDXJ −61% in 2013 74 A one-commodity, high-cost developer whose funding plan needs a supportive gold equity market.
9 Regulatory, legal & geopolitical 5% Lone Tree air, mercury, water pollution control and reclamation permits outstanding; 3 projects need an EIS; no material litigation; US-only 48 Material and on the critical path, but in a top jurisdiction.
10 Valuation & expectations 10% $1.59; EV ~$1.35B ≈ $208/oz M&I; mean target $2.99; short interest 93.9M (10.8%, 9.7 days) partly convert hedge; 2027 consensus looks front-loaded 45 Not demanding on assets, but near-term estimates look too high and short interest is meaningful.

Overall: weighted average = 10.20 + 5.80 + 6.20 + 8.00 + 7.60 + 7.00 + 4.50 + 7.40 + 2.40 + 4.50 = 63.6 → 64.

Change vs last: +3 vs 61 on the old 6-area method. This is not like-for-like. The new method scores liquidity on its own (68), and this run's quarterly free-cash-flow series and funding check made liquidity look tighter than "cash > debt" suggested. Profitability (80) is now scored explicitly. On the other side, finding NGM as the processor and the mid-2027 stockpiling plan soften the toll-cliff element of the old "Dependency" score.

Ranking check: IAUX (64) sits between EROC (58) and DUOT (66). It burns more cash relative to revenue and relies on one plant restart, unlike EROC, which already has contracted revenue. It ranks below DUOT and IPX because it has producing ounces, $465M in cash and no single-tenant dependency.

Conclusion

  • What you are really betting on: A 2007-vintage autoclave restarting on time in late 2027, so that i-80 keeps about 87% of its gold instead of about 56%, while gold stays well above $3,500 long enough to fund the gap.
  • The 2–3 things that will decide the outcome:
    1. Lone Tree's permits and the Q4 2026 construction start, then the H2 2027 schedule.
    2. Whether quarterly cash burn falls below about $45M as Granite Creek ramps, so that the accordion and warrant cash are enough.
    3. Whether Archimedes can deliver the 75–125 koz needed to turn 75 koz into 150–200 koz.
  • Signposts:
    • Bull confirmed:
      • Lone Tree permits announced and major construction started in Q4 2026;
      • Granite Creek ≥30 koz in 2026 and the ~5,300 stranded oz sold in Q3;
      • Archimedes first gold in Q4 2026;
      • accordion drawn in H1 2027 without new equity.
    • Bull broken:
      • Lone Tree first pour moves into 2028;
      • quarterly operating cash flow worse than −$50M in Q3/Q4 2026;
      • Cove's study slips a fifth time, into 2027;
      • any equity or stream raise before first gold.
  • New since the last report:
    • The toll processor is NGM, confirmed in the SRK technical report. The plan stops toll milling in mid-2027 and stockpiles for about six months. So the risk has moved from a contract cliff to a revenue gap in H2 2027 just before prepay deliveries start in January 2028.
    • Free cash flow worsened four quarters running, to −$71.1M in Q2. On a simple funding check, Phase 1 needs the $100M accordion and about $106M from about 152M in-the-money US$0.70 warrants (expiring 2027-11-16).
    • Cove's feasibility study slipped a fourth time, to Q4 2026, inside the Granite Creek release. Orion's stake drop was mostly the convertible being repaid, with about 7.8M shares disposed of. The "Freedom Sell" was a data error, and the CEO has now bought 2M shares on market in 2026.

Open questions & data gaps

  • Lone Tree permit-by-permit status and the construction start. No filing after 2026-08-10. High importance: it is on the critical path.
  • Gold prepay covenants (minimum liquidity and similar). Described only as "customary" in the 10-Q; the exhibits were not read. High importance: they determine whether the H2 2027 gap becomes a covenant event.
  • Consensus. No clean FY2026–28 revenue, EPS or production consensus in one currency was found; sources differ 2–3x. That makes the "not priced in" sizing low-confidence. Medium–high importance.
  • NGM toll terms. The fee basis is not reconciled ($275–280/t on the call vs $53.92–238.88/t in the SRK report), and the extension mechanics are unknown. Medium.
  • Q3 2026 production and sales. Not yet reported; results are expected around 2026-11-12 (aggregator date).
  • Peer EV/oz and P/NAV. Not found. "Cheap per ounce" is therefore unbenchmarked. Medium.
  • Lone Tree contingency. About 12% of $430M per the 2025 study; the amount used is "minimal", with no dollar figure. Medium.
  • Call transcripts are third-party auto-transcripts. Mining Forum Americas quotes (labour 5–10% over budget, "no further equity") come from a low-reliability AI transcript.
Sources
  1. i-80 Gold Form 10-Q for quarter ended 2026-06-30 — SEC EDGAR — 2026-08-10 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000162828026055367/iaux-20260630.htm
  2. i-80 Gold Form 10-K FY2025 — SEC EDGAR — 2026-02-19 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000162828026009886/iaux-20251231.htm
  3. i-80 Gold Reports Q2 2026 Results (8-K Ex. 99.1) — SEC EDGAR — 2026-08-10 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000162828026055373/i-80goldcorppressreleaseq2.htm
  4. Lone Tree refurbishment update (8-K Ex. 99.1) — SEC EDGAR — 2026-07-28 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000162828026050887/a07-28x26ix80goldpressrele.htm
  5. i-80 Gold Reports Q1 2026 Results (8-K Ex. 99.1) — SEC EDGAR — 2026-05-12 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000162828026034215/i-80goldcorppressreleaseq1.htm
  6. i-80 Gold Reports Q4 and FY2025 Results (8-K Ex. 99.1) — SEC EDGAR — 2026-02-19 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000162828026009889/i-80goldcorppressreleaseq4.htm
  7. Archimedes assays and updated 2026 study timing (8-K Ex. 99.1) — SEC EDGAR — 2026-06-25 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000119312626291921/d133490dex991.htm
  8. Lone Tree engineering study, capex $430M (8-K Ex. 99.1) — SEC EDGAR — 2025-12-18 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000119312525335368/d34783dex991.htm
  9. Granite Creek Underground S-K 1300 Technical Report Summary (SRK) — SEC EDGAR — 2026-09-22 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000119312526397337/d29391dex991.htm
  10. Granite Creek feasibility study and initial reserves press release (8-K Ex. 99.1) — SEC EDGAR — 2026-09-21 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000119312526397273/d152188dex991.htm
  11. i-80 Gold Form 10-Q for quarter ended 2026-03-31 — SEC EDGAR — 2026-05-12 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001853962/000162828026034207/iaux-20260331.htm
  12. i-80 Gold Form 10-Q for quarter ended 2025-09-30 — SEC EDGAR — 2025-11-12 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000162828025051673/iaux-20250930.htm
  13. i-80 Gold Form 10-Q for quarter ended 2025-06-30 — SEC EDGAR — 2025-08-13 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000185396225000009/iaux-20250630.htm
  14. i-80 Gold Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (third-party auto-transcript) — allmind.ai — 2026-08-11 — https://allmind.ai/earnings/event/2944218
  15. i-80 Gold Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (Benzinga) — Webull — 2026-05-13 — https://www.webull.com.au/news-detail/14875426875425792
  16. i-80 Gold Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (Benzinga) — Webull — 2026-02-20 — https://www.webull.com.br/en/news-detail/14433526831797248
  17. Form 8-K, Franco-Nevada royalty and Orion repayment — SEC EDGAR — 2026-03-17 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000119312526109526/d63007d8k.htm
  18. Form 8-K, 3.75% convertible senior notes due 2031 — SEC EDGAR — 2026-03-24 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000119312526122181/d133161d8k.htm
  19. Form 8-K, gold prepay (National Bank / Macquarie) — SEC EDGAR — 2026-03-27 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000119312526129359/d120180d8k.htm
  20. Form 8-K, Vox offtake termination — SEC EDGAR — 2026-06-26 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000119312526283989/d102923d8k.htm
  21. Form 4 filings 2026 (accessions 0000912282-26-000512, -000535, -000637, -000739, -000781, -001136, -001140, -001191, -001207) — SEC EDGAR — 2026-03-27 to 2026-10-01 — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1853962&type=4
  22. Orion Resource Partners Schedule 13G/A No. 7 (and No. 6, 2026-02-17) — SEC EDGAR — 2026-05-15 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000090514826002422/primary_doc.xml
  23. Libra Advisors Schedule 13G (2026-09-08) and Sprott 13G/A No. 4 (2026-08-14) — SEC EDGAR — 2026-09-08 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1853962/000119312526385224/primary_doc.xml
  24. IAUX short-interest history (FINRA data) — Equibles — through 2026-09-30 — https://equibles.com/stocks/iaux/shortinterest
  25. i-80 Gold consensus — MarketScreener — accessed 2026-10-12 — https://ca.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/I-80-GOLD-CORP-138206708/consensus/
  26. IAUX analyst forecast — TipRanks — accessed 2026-10-12 — https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/iaux/forecast
  27. Freedom: i-80 Gold shares have over 60% upside — Freedom Broker — 2026-06-03 — https://fbroker.kz/en/news/50356-freedom-potencial-rosta-akcii-i-80-gold-bolee-60-na-fone
  28. Consensus snippets (Simply Wall St forecasts; Stocksguide; Benzinga earnings estimates; search summaries only) — various — accessed 2026-10-12 — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nysemkt-iaux/i-80-gold/future ; https://stocksguide.com/en/forecast/i-80-Gold-CA44955L1067 ; https://www.benzinga.com/quote/IAUX/earnings-forecasts
  29. i-80 Gold at Mining Forum Americas 2026 (AI-generated transcript, low reliability) — Investing.com — 2026-09-29 — https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/i80-gold-at-mining-forum-americas-2026-longlife-nevada-buildout-93CH-4923767
  30. Nevada Gold Mines operations page — Barrick — undated, accessed 2026-10-12 — https://www.barrick.com/English/operations/nevada-gold-mines/default.aspx
  31. Barrick advances IPO of North American gold assets — Barrick — 2026-04-28 — https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2026/barrick-advances-IPO-of-north-american-gold-assets/default.aspx
  32. Newmont Form 8-K (Nevada JV settlement) — SEC EDGAR — 2026-08-13 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001164727/000110465926095968/tm2623048d1_8k.htm
  33. Hycroft Q2 2026 results (8-K Ex. 99.1) — SEC EDGAR — 2026-07-28 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001718405/000149315226034923/ex99-1.htm
  34. Integra Resources Florida Canyon coverage (AISC $3,300–3,500 guide; Q2 $3,371) — Skillings — 2026 — https://www.skillings.net/integra-resources-extends-florida-canyon-mine-life-to-2033-following-74-reserve-increase/
  35. Equinox gets green light to build South Railroad — Mining Weekly — 2026-08-17 — https://www.miningweekly.com/article/equinox-gets-green-light-to-start-building-south-railroad-mine-in-nevada-2026-08-17 ; Equinox acquires Orla — Kitco — 2026-05-13 — https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-13/equinox-gold-acquires-orla-mining-51-billion-consolidation-backed-pierre
  36. Goldman trims end-2026 gold forecast to $4,650, holds $5,400 for 2027 — investingLive — 2026-09-23 — https://investinglive.com/commodities/icymi-goldman-trims-end-2026-gold-forecast-to-4-650-but-holds-5-400-target-for-2027/
  37. JPMorgan sees $4,500 gold in Q4, risks to downside — Kitco — 2026-07-06 — https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-07-06/jpmorgan-sees-4500-gold-price-fourth-quarter-says-risks-downside
  38. Gold demand proves resilient despite Q2 selloff (WGC Gold Demand Trends) — Kitco — 2026-07-30 — https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-30/gold-demand-proves-resilient-despite-q2-selloff-central-banks-return-and
  39. Gold price on Thursday, October 8, 2026 — pricegold.net — 2026-10-08 — https://pricegold.net/2026/october/8/
  40. Silver below $60 after Fed minutes — Finance Magnates — 2026-10-08 — https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/why-is-silver-going-down-today-price-slips-below-60-after-fed-minutes/
  41. i-80 Gold quote ($1.59 close, 2026-10-09) — StockAnalysis — 2026-10-09 — https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/iaux/
  42. IAUX quote page (next earnings 2026-11-12, aggregator) — Yahoo Finance — accessed 2026-10-12 — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IAUX/
  43. Gold miner Allied Nevada files for bankruptcy — Bloomberg — 2015-03-10 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-10/gold-miner-allied-nevada-files-for-bankruptcy
  44. GDXJ annual returns — totalrealreturns.com — accessed 2026-10-12 — https://totalrealreturns.com/n/GDXJ
  45. Trio of mining tax hike proposals pass out of special session — The Nevada Independent — 2020 — https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/trio-of-mining-tax-hike-proposals-pass-out-of-special-session-first-step-to-amend-constitution
  46. Why Nevada's permitting landscape is central to i-80 Gold's production growth story (third-party) — Crux Investor — 2026-06-15 — https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/why-nevadas-permitting-landscape-is-central-to-i-80-golds-production-growth-story
  47. i-80 Gold Q2 2026 results: Granite Creek ramps up as Lone Tree advances (third-party) — Crux Investor — 2026-08-14 — https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/i-80-gold-second-quarter-of-2026-results-granite-creek-ramps-up-as-lone-tree-advances
  48. EDGAR submissions index, CIK 1853962 (no 8-K after 2026-09-22) — SEC — accessed 2026-10-12 — https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001853962.json
  49. i-80 Gold Finalizes Third-Party Processing Agreements — i-80 Gold — 2025-03-19 — https://www.i80gold.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/March-19-2025-i-80-News-Release-Processing-Agreement-_FINAL.pdf
  50. Humboldt basin water curtailment debate (Nevada Independent via carsonnow; snippet only) — carsonnow.org — undated — https://www.carsonnow.org/?p=213457
  51. Department of the Interior to adopt expedited NEPA permitting procedures — Greenberg Traurig — 2025-04 — https://www.gtlaw.com/en/insights/2025/4/department-of-the-interior-to-adopt-expedited-nepa-permitting-procedures-for-energy-and-minerals-projects-on-federal-lands
  52. i-80 Gold Provides Progress Update on its New Development Plan (8-K Ex. 99.1) — SEC EDGAR — 2025-07-08 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001853962/000119312525158805/d69937dex991.htm
All IAUX Bulls vs Bears reports
Disclaimer. AI-generated research and podcast (Claude by Anthropic, voices by Google Gemini) for educational purposes — not financial advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Willem (MR.INVEST) owns this stock. Check the company’s own filings before making any decision.
← All Bulls vs Bears reports